Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model
Figure 5
Probabilistic Country Risk Score forecasting for selected Latin American countries belonging to each cluster (cluster 1: Chile; cluster 2: Brazil, Mexico, and Uruguay; cluster 3: Ecuador; cluster 4: Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, and Venezuela). The dashed line is the mean of the 95% confidence interval and the red lines correspond to 95% confidence intervals between April 2, 2012, and May 5, 2013. The drawn black points are the known CRS of the 1st data set. The green points are the actual and current available data (from August 13, 2012, to November 5, 2012) used in order to validate the model, the 2nd data set. Notice that every plot has its own numerical range in the vertical axis.
