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Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 375389, 11 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/375389
Research Article

A Multitarget Land Use Change Simulation Model Based on Cellular Automata and Its Application

1Liaoning Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Geomatics, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
2Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received 17 April 2014; Accepted 1 June 2014; Published 29 June 2014

Academic Editor: Jianzhou Wang

Copyright © 2014 Jun Yang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Based on the analysis of the existing land use change simulation model, combined with macroland use change driving factors and microlocal land use competition, and through the application of Python language integrated technical approaches such as CA, GIS, AHP, and Markov, a multitarget land use change simulation model based on cellular automata(CA) is established. This model was applied to conduct scenario simulation of land use/cover change of the Jinzhou New District, based on 1:10000 map scale land use, planning, topography, statistics, and other data collected in the year of 1988, 2003, and 2012. The simulation results indicate the following: (1) this model can simulate the mutual transformation of multiple land use types in a relatively satisfactory way; it takes land use system as a whole and simultaneously takes the land use demand in the macrolevel and the land use suitability in the local scale into account; and (2) the simulation accuracy of the model reaches 72%, presenting higher creditability. The model is capable of providing auxiliary decision-making support for coastal regions with the analysis of the land use change driving mechanism, prediction of land use change tendencies, and establishment of land resource sustainable utilization policies.