Mathematical Modeling of Public Opinions: Parameter Estimation, Sensitivity Analysis, and Model Uncertainty Using an Agree-Disagree Opinion Model

<div>The Agree-Disagree model fits for the second poll data. (a) The solid line depicts the model output for <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M112" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 5.68448 8.68572" width="5.68448pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M405 650H141L135 622C222 616 230 610 215 535L133 116C118 41 113 33 29 28L23 0H289L295 28C209 33 205 40 219 116L298 535C312 609 317 616 399 622L405 650Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> while the small crosses show the indifferent data. (b) The solid line depicts the model output for <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M113" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 9.2729 8.68572" width="9.2729pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M686 28C612 35 607 44 591 112C563 234 541 360 519 489L489 666L457 658L147 121C100 40 89 36 24 28L17 0H240L250 28C168 34 159 41 190 101L262 237H482C495 180 503 137 510 91C517 47 514 35 441 28L433 0H677L686 28ZM475 280H285L429 541H431L475 280Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> while the small crosses show the Agree data. (c) The solid line depicts the model output for <span class="nowrap"><svg height="8.68572pt" id="M114" style="vertical-align:-0.0498209pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 10.095 8.68572" width="10.095pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M743 375C743 570 607 650 407 650H136L130 622C214 612 220 606 204 526L125 122C110 43 105 36 24 27L17 0H250C382 0 482 23 571 76C680 141 743 248 743 375ZM644 379C644 188 520 36 305 36C277 36 249 38 229 46C205 55 202 71 212 126L293 553C300 588 306 600 317 606C330 613 356 617 390 617C547 617 644 537 644 379Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> while the small crosses show the Disagree data.</div>

Abstract and Applied Analysis

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Figure 6

Figure 6: Mathematical Modeling of Public Opinions: Parameter Estimation, Sensitivity Analysis, and Model Uncertainty Using an Agree-Disagree Opinion Model 

Figure 6 | Mathematical Modeling of Public Opinions: Parameter Estimation, Sensitivity Analysis, and Model Uncertainty Using an Agree-Disagree Opinion Model 