Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

Table 4

Performance of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for rice area, productivity, and production for Odisha and India.

Parameters	Years of prediction	Actual values	Forecasted values	% error in prediction ()	MAPE in prediction
India
Area, million hectare	2007-08	43.91	43.88	0.07	2.99
	2008-09	45.54	44.12	3.12
	2009-10	41.92	44.35	−5.80
Productivity, kg ha^−1	2007-08	2202	2121.24	3.67	2.32
	2008-09	2178	2173.59	0.20
	2009-10	2125	2190.89	−3.10
Production, million tones	2007-08	96.69	92.22	4.62	5.41
	2008-09	99.18	95.26	3.95
	2009-10	89.09	95.92	−7.67
Odisha
Area, million hectare	2007-08	4.45	4.46	−0.22	0.61
	2008-09	4.45	4.45	0.00
	2009-10	4.37	4.44	−1.60
Productivity, kg ha^−1	2007-08	1720	1503.89	12.56	5.17
	2008-09	1529	1544.61	−1.02
	2009-10	1585	1554.45	1.93
Production, million tones	2007-08	7.66	6.77	11.62	4.90
	2008-09	6.81	6.95	−2.06
	2009-10	6.92	6.99	−1.01

MAPE: mean absolute percent error.