Figure 9: Prior connectivity structure for time series of length . Graphical heat map representations of the temporal connectivity structures imposed by the prior distribution for time points. (a) Free allocation model (BGM). (b) Changepoint process ( ). Each heat map indicates the prior probability of two time points being assigned to the same compartment. The probabilities are represented by a grey shading, where white corresponds to a probability of , and black corresponds to a probability of . The connectivity strengths were estimated from 10 independent MCMC simulations. In these simulations, an empty data set (without any data points) was used so that the inference was driven exclusively by the prior probability distribution .