Predictive Analysis of Settlement Risk in Tunnel Construction: A Bow-Tie-Bayesian Network Approach

Table 14

Calculation of FPS, FFR, and the occurrence probability of environmental failure, operational error, and multiple failures.

Event	Aggregated fuzzy numbers	FPS	FFR (d^−1)	Failure probability (in 1 year)
X1	(0.1288, 0.2288, 0.3288, 0.4838)	0.2951	8.3969e − 04	2.6402e − 1
X2	(0.1325, 0.2325, 0.3163, 0.4713)	0.2909	8.0032e − 04	2.5336e − 1
X3	(0.1000, 0.2163, 0.2700, 0.3825)	0.2420	4.2986e − 04	1.4518e − 1
X4	(0.0450, 0.0900, 0.1125, 0.1800)	0.1082	2.2492e − 05	8.1803e − 3
X5	(0.1363, 0.2488, 0.2775, 0.4263)	0.2747	6.6022e − 04	2.14155e − 1
X6	(0.1488, 0.2488, 0.3225, 0.4713)	0.3004	8.9125e − 04	2.7770e − 1
X7	(0.1163, 0.2388, 0.3125, 0.4675)	0.2855	7.5157e − 04	2.4002e − 1
X8	(0.1450, 0.2538, 0.2950, 0.3100)	0.2463	4.5643e − 04	1.5338e − 1
CE1	(0.1413, 0.2413, 0.3513, 0.4838)	0.3058	9.4598e − 04	2.9202e − 1
CE2	(0.1288, 0.2513, 0.3038, 0.4713)	0.2916	8.0679e − 04	2.5496e − 1
CE3	(0.1450, 0.2450, 0.3363, 0.4713)	0.3010	8.9722e − 04	2.7937e − 1