Advances in Decision Sciences / 2012 / Article / Fig 2

Research Article

A Longstaff and Schwartz Approach to the Early Election Problem

Figure 2

Recursive nature of establishing the value function. The electoral cycle commences at time zero in government. As time progresses, the poll state (red curve) diffuses. The latest date for an election (compulsory election) is at time years. But a government can call an early election (1) when high in the polls. A campaigning time will occur, and polls diffuse until the election date at (2). Then either the government will win the election and return to the initial problem (3) or the government will lose the election (4) and have zero remaining life in power.
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