Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

<table>Simulated (a) and observed (b) tropical Atlantic cyclone storm tracks. The period is 1979 to 1996 and the model resolution is <svg height="13.1375" id="M21" style="vertical-align:-0.1638pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 84.4375 13.1375" width="84.4375" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,.062,12.875)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,8.222,12.875)"><path d="M113 -12q-24 0 -39.5 16t-15.5 42q0 24 16 40.5t40 16.5t40 -16.5t16 -40.5q0 -26 -16 -42t-41 -16z" id="x2E"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,12.098,12.875)"><path d="M153 550l-26 -186q79 31 111 31q90 0 141.5 -51t51.5 -119q0 -93 -89 -166q-85 -69 -173 -71q-32 0 -61.5 11.5t-41.5 23.5q-18 17 -17 34q2 16 22 33q14 9 26 -1q61 -50 124 -50q60 0 93 43.5t33 104.5q0 69 -41.5 110t-121.5 41q-53 0 -102 -20l38 305h286l6 -8
l-26 -65h-233z" id="x35"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,20.263,4.712)"><path d="M326 255q0 -56 -41 -96t-99 -40t-99 40t-41 96t41 96t99 40t99 -40t41 -96zM274 255q0 38 -25.5 65t-62.5 27t-62.5 -27t-25.5 -65t25.5 -65t62.5 -27t62.5 27t25.5 65z" id="x2218"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,29.075,12.875)"><path d="M528 54l-36 -38l-198 201l-198 -201l-36 38l197 200l-197 201l36 38l198 -202l198 202l36 -38l-197 -201z" id="xD7"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,42.827,12.875)"><path d="M241 635q53 0 94 -28.5t63.5 -76t33.5 -102.5t11 -116q0 -58 -11 -112.5t-34 -103.5t-63.5 -78.5t-94.5 -29.5t-95 28t-64.5 75t-34.5 102.5t-11 118.5q0 58 11.5 112.5t34.5 103t64.5 78t95.5 29.5zM238 602q-32 0 -55.5 -25t-35.5 -68t-17.5 -91t-5.5 -105
q0 -76 10 -138.5t37 -107.5t69 -45q32 0 55.5 25t35.5 68.5t17.5 91.5t5.5 105t-5.5 105.5t-18 92t-36 68t-56.5 24.5z" id="x30"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,50.986,12.875)"><path d="M113 -12q-24 0 -39.5 16t-15.5 42q0 24 16 40.5t40 16.5t40 -16.5t16 -40.5q0 -26 -16 -42t-41 -16z" id="x2E"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,54.862,12.875)"><path d="M137 343l67 33q37 17 63 17q79 0 129.5 -53t50.5 -131q0 -92 -58 -156.5t-147 -64.5t-147 68t-58 182q0 63 17 119t43 95.5t61.5 72t69 52t67.5 31.5q62 22 128 33l6 -32q-56 -11 -108 -35q-149 -71 -184 -231zM227 337q-47 0 -95 -27q-6 -23 -6 -70q0 -93 36 -155.5
t96 -62.5q53 0 78 45.5t25 105.5q0 68 -35 116t-99 48z" id="x36"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,63.022,12.875)"><path d="M412 140l28 -9q0 -2 -35 -131h-373v23q112 112 161 170q59 70 92 127t33 115q0 63 -31 98t-86 35q-75 0 -137 -93l-22 20l57 81q55 59 135 59q69 0 118.5 -46.5t49.5 -122.5q0 -62 -29.5 -114t-102.5 -130l-141 -149h186q42 0 58.5 10.5t38.5 56.5z" id="x32"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,-0,0,-.017,71.181,12.875)"><path d="M153 550l-26 -186q79 31 111 31q90 0 141.5 -51t51.5 -119q0 -93 -89 -166q-85 -69 -173 -71q-32 0 -61.5 11.5t-41.5 23.5q-18 17 -17 34q2 16 22 33q14 9 26 -1q61 -50 124 -50q60 0 93 43.5t33 104.5q0 69 -41.5 110t-121.5 41q-53 0 -102 -20l38 305h286l6 -8
l-26 -65h-233z" id="x35"></path></g>
<g transform="matrix(.012,-0,0,-.012,79.338,4.712)"><path d="M326 255q0 -56 -41 -96t-99 -40t-99 40t-41 96t41 96t99 40t99 -40t41 -96zM274 255q0 38 -25.5 65t-62.5 27t-62.5 -27t-25.5 -65t25.5 -65t62.5 -27t62.5 27t25.5 65z" id="x2218"></path></g>
</svg>.</table>

Advances in Meteorology

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model 