The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach
Figure 7
Neighborhood ensemble probability forecasts of 0–3 km updraft helicity from FixedPhysics and MultiPhysics convective-scale ensembles exceeding thresholds of ((a), (b)) 150 m2 s−2, ((c), (d)) 200 m2 s−2, and ((e), (f)) 250 m2 s−2 starting at 2200 UTC and ending at 2240 UTC. The bottom panel (g) is the WDSS-II generated KTLX radar observed low level (0–3 km AGL) mesocyclone track during 2200–2240 UTC (MD is missing data). Overlaid in each panel is the NWS observed tornado damage track (black outline in (a)–(f) and green outline in (g)) that starts at 2210 UTC and ends at 2238 UTC. The portion of the domain shown here is 120 × 90 km wide.
