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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2013, Article ID 748715, 8 pages
Research Article

Herdsmen’s Adaptation to Climate Changes and Subsequent Impacts in the Ecologically Fragile Zone, China

1Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan, Hubei 430062, China
2Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
4State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CRAES), Beijing 100012, China
5State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100048, China
6China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China

Received 18 July 2013; Revised 10 September 2013; Accepted 17 September 2013

Academic Editor: Xiangzheng Deng

Copyright © 2013 Yingcheng Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The change of land surface can exert significant influence on the future climate change. This study analyzed the effects of herdsmen’s adaptation to climate changes on the livestock breeding, income, and land surface dynamics with a land surface parameterization scheme. The empirical analysis was first carried out on the impacts of the adaptation measures of herdsmen on their income in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming (PMP) model on the basis of the household survey data in the Three-River Source Region, an ecologically fragile area in Qinghai Province, China. Then, the land surface parameterization process is analyzed based on the agent-based model (ABM), which involves the herdsmen’s adaptation measures on climate change, and it also provides reference for the land surface change projection. The result shows that the climate change adaptation measures will have a positive effect on the increasing of the amount of herdsman’s livestock and income as well as future land surface dynamics. Some suggestions on the land use management were finally proposed, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning.