An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April

Table 2

Validation of categorical forecasts. In the rows of FST (forecast) and OBS (observation), “+” stands for above average, “−” for below average, and “𝑛” for years when anomalies of forecast and observation show different signs but the actual difference is within 2 storm counts. In the CMP (comparison) rows, “1” stands for years anomalies of the forecasts and observations show the same sign, “0” stands for different signs with a difference greater than 2 counts.

Yr	1960	1961	1962	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971	1972	1973
FST	−	𝑛	−	−	+	−	𝑛	−	−	+	𝑛	+	−	−
OBS	−	𝑛	𝑛	−	+	−	𝑛	−	−	+	𝑛	−	−	−
CMP	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1
Yr	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987
FST	−	−	−	−	𝑛	−	𝑛	𝑛	−	−	+	𝑛	−	−
OBS	−	−	−	−	−	−	−	𝑛	−	−	+	−	−	−
CMP	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	1
Yr	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
FST	+	𝑛	+	−	−	−	−	+	+	−	+	+	+	+
OBS	+	𝑛	+	−	−	−	−	+	+	−	−	+	+	+
CMP	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
Yr	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Rate	%
FST	+	+	+	+	−	+	+	−	+	+
OBS	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+
CMP	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	44/52	85%