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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 280218, 6 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/280218
Research Article

Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan

Pakistan Meteorological Department, National Weather Forecasting Centre, P.O. Box 1214, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan

Received 9 November 2013; Accepted 28 February 2014; Published 30 March 2014

Academic Editor: Harry D. Kambezidis

Copyright © 2014 Muhammad Hanif. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Snowmelt flooding triggered by intense heat is a major temperature related weather hazard in northern Pakistan, and the frequency of such extreme flood events has increased during the recent years. In this study, the probabilistic temperature forecasts at seasonal and subseasonal time scales based on hindcasts simulations from three state-of-the-art models within the DEMETER project are assessed by the relative operating characteristic (ROC) verification method. Results based on direct model outputs reveal significant skill for hot summers in February 3–5 (ROC with lower 95% confidence limit of 0.538) and February 4-5 (ROC with lower 95% confidence limit of 0.623) forecasts when validated against observations. Results for ERA-40 reanalysis also show skill for hot summers. Skilful probabilistic ensemble forecasts of summertime temperatures may be valuable in providing the foreknowledge of snowmelt flooding and water management in Pakistan.