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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 376738, 17 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/376738
Research Article

Climate Projections for South America: RegCM3 Driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5

1Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI) and Natural Resources Institute, Avenida BPS 1303, 37500-903 Itajubá, MG, Brazil
2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, São Paulo University, Rua do Matão 1226, 05508-090 São Paulo, SP, Brazil

Received 20 December 2013; Revised 25 April 2014; Accepted 28 April 2014; Published 29 May 2014

Academic Editor: Luis Gimeno

Copyright © 2014 Michelle Simões Reboita et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This study shows climate projections of air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nested in ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global models. The projections consider the A1B scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and three time-slices: present (1960–1990), near- (2010–2040), and far-future (2070–2100) climates. In the future, RegCM3 projections indicate general warming throughout all SA and seasons, which is more pronounced in the far-future period. In this late period the RegCM3 projections indicate that the negative trend of precipitation over northern SA is also higher. In addition, a precipitation increase over southeastern SA is projected, mainly during summer and spring. The lifecycle of the South American monsoon (SAM) was also investigated in the present and future climates. In the near-future, the projections show a slight delay (one pentad) of the beginning of the rainy season, resulting in a small reduction of the SAM length. In the far-future, there is no agreement between projections related to the SAM features.