Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed

Table 2

24 hr and 48 hr accumulated precipitation root-mean-square error (RMSE) and correlation (CORR) of the ensemble members on the Iguaçu watershed during 32 rainfall events between 2005 and 2010.

Microphysics	WSM5	WSM6	WSM3	Lin	Lin	Lin	Morrison	Lin	Lin	Lin	Ensemble
Cumulus	KF	KF	KF	Grell 3D	Grell-Devenyi	BMJ	KF	KF	KF	KF	Mean
Initialization	00	00	00	00	00	00	00	6 hr lagged	12 hr lagged	18 hr lagged
RMSE
24 hr	9.28	8.91	10.55	9.18	9.44	9.57	8.62	9.67	10.09	10.29	8.37
48 hr	9.91	9.68	10.72	10.63	10.24	9.88	8.52	9.96	10.05	10.25	8.76
CORR
24 hr	0.66	0.67	0.56	0.67	0.66	0.69	0.68	0.64	0.60	0.59	0.67
48 hr	0.60	0.68	0.58	0.57	0.74	0.63	0.66	0.65	0.59	0.58	0.65