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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2014, Article ID 735491, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/735491
Research Article

Prediction of Tropical Cyclones’ Characteristic Factors on Hainan Island Using Data Mining Technology

1Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China
3Hainan Power Grid Corporation, Haikou, Hainan 570203, China

Received 18 August 2014; Revised 20 October 2014; Accepted 28 October 2014; Published 20 November 2014

Academic Editor: Luis Gimeno

Copyright © 2014 Ruixu Zhou et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

A new methodology combining data mining technology with statistical methods is proposed for the prediction of tropical cyclones’ characteristic factors which contain latitude, longitude, the lowest center pressure, and wind speed. In the proposed method, the best track datasets in the years 1949~2012 are used for prediction. Using the method, effective criterions are formed to judge whether tropical cyclones land on Hainan Island or not. The highest probability of accurate judgment can reach above 79%. With regard to TCs which are judged to land on Hainan Island, related prediction equations are established to effectively predict their characteristic factors. Results show that the average distance error is improved compared with the National Meteorological Centre of China.