Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015, Article ID 215840, 15 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/215840
Research Article

Analysis of Changes in Precipitation and Drought in Aksu River Basin, Northwest China

1College of Resources Environment & Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
2School of Mathematical Sciences, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
3State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received 23 October 2014; Revised 15 January 2015; Accepted 11 February 2015

Academic Editor: Ming Pan

Copyright © 2015 Yuhu Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. H. Hisdal, K. Stahl, L. M. Tallaksen, and S. Demuth, “Have streamflow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent?” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 317–333, 2001. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  2. M. Gocic and S. Trajkovic, “Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 1980–2010,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 494, pp. 32–42, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  3. M. Gemmer, S. Becker, and T. Jiang, “Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 77, no. 1-2, pp. 39–45, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. T. Partal and E. Kahya, “Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 20, no. 9, pp. 2011–2026, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  5. Q. Liu, Z. Yang, and B. Cui, “Spatial and temporal variability of annual precipitation during 1961–2006 in Yellow River Basin, China,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 361, no. 3-4, pp. 330–338, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. P. G. Oguntunde, B. J. Abiodun, and G. Lischeid, “Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 411, no. 3-4, pp. 207–218, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  7. H. Tabari and P. H. Talaee, “Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 396, no. 3-4, pp. 313–320, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. H. Tabari, H. Abghari, and P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, “Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 26, no. 22, pp. 3351–3361, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  9. E. E. Moreira, C. A. Coelho, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, and J. T. Mexia, “SPI-based drought category prediction using loglinear models,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 354, no. 1–4, pp. 116–130, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. A. A. Paulo and L. S. Pereira, “Stochastic prediction of drought class transitions,” Water Resources Management, vol. 22, no. 9, pp. 1277–1296, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. S. Shahid, “Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 22, no. 13, pp. 2235–2247, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. D. Khalili, T. Farnoud, H. Jamshidi, A. A. Kamgar-Haghighi, and S. Zand-Parsa, “Comparability analyses of the SPI and RDI meteorological drought indices in different climatic zones,” Water Resources Management, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 1737–1757, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  13. A. K. Mishra and V. P. Singh, “A review of drought concepts,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 391, no. 1-2, pp. 202–216, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. Y. H. Ding, G. Y. Ren, Z. C. Zhao et al., “Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: an overview of recent progress,” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 24, no. 6, pp. 954–971, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  15. Y. Shi, Y. Shen, E. Kang et al., “Recent and future climate change in northwest China,” Climatic Change, vol. 80, no. 3-4, pp. 379–393, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. H. Weng, K.-M. Lau, and Y. Xue, “Multi-scale summer rainfall variability over China and its long-term link to global sea surface temperature variability,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 845–857, 1999. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. C.-P. Chang, Y. Zhang, and T. Li, “Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the subtropical ridge,” Journal of Climate, vol. 13, no. 24, pp. 4310–4325, 2000. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. G. Ren, H. Wu, and Z. Chen, “Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China,” Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol. 11, pp. 322–330, 2000. View at Google Scholar
  19. Y. Ding, Z. Wang, and Y. Sun, “Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in east China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: observed evidences,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 28, no. 9, pp. 1139–1161, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  20. Y. Lei, B. Hoskins, and J. Slingo, “Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: observational evidence,” Journal of Climate, vol. 24, no. 17, pp. 4584–4599, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. R. H. Zhang, B. Y. Wu, P. Zhao, and J. Han, “The decadal shift of the summer climate in the late 1980s over East China and its possible causes,” Acta Meteorological Sinica, vol. 66, pp. 697–706, 2008. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  22. P. Zhao, Y. Song, and R. C. Yu, “Long-term changes in rainfall over Eastern China and large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with recent global warming,” Journal of Climate, vol. 23, no. 6, pp. 1544–1562, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  23. D. Yihui, R. Guoyu, S. Guangyu et al., “China's national assessment report on climate change (I): climate change in China and the future trend,” Advances in Climate Change Research, vol. 3, supplement, pp. 1–5, 2007. View at Google Scholar
  24. K. E. Trenberth and P. D. Jones, “Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning et al., Eds., chapter 3, pp. 235–336, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007. View at Google Scholar
  25. H. Ye and R. Lu, “Subseasonal variation in ENSO-related east asian rainfall anomalies during summer and its role in weakening the relationship between the ENSO and summer rainfall in eastern china since the late 1970s,” Journal of Climate, vol. 24, no. 9, pp. 2271–2284, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  26. A. Duan, M. Wang, Y. Lei, and Y. Cui, “Trends in summer rainfall over china associated with the Tibetan Plateau sensible heat source during 1980–2008,” Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 261–275, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. Z. Zhu, T. Li, and J. He, “Out-of-phase relationship between Boreal spring and summer decadal rainfall changes in Southern China,” Journal of Climate, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 1083–1099, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. Y. N. Chen and Z. X. Xu, “Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin,” Science in China, Series D: Earth Sciences, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 65–73, 2005. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  29. H. Li, Z. Jiang, and Q. Yang, “Association of north atlantic oscillations with aksu river runoff in China,” Journal of Geographical Sciences, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 12–24, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  30. S. Zhang, S. Liu, X. Mo, C. Shu, Y. Sun, and C. Zhang, “Assessing the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin,” Acta Geographica Sinica, vol. 65, no. 11, pp. 1363–1370, 2010. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  31. S. Zhang, S. Liu, X. Mo, C. Shu, Y. Sun, and C. Zhang, “Assessing the impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin,” Journal of Geographical Sciences, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 609–620, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  32. B. Li, Y. Chen, X. Shi, Z. Chen, and W. Li, “Temperature and precipitation changes in different environments in the arid region of northwest China,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 112, no. 3-4, pp. 589–596, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  33. H. Wang, Y. Chen, S. Xun, D. Lai, Y. Fan, and Z. Li, “Changes in daily climate extremes in the arid area of northwestern China,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 112, no. 1-2, pp. 15–28, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. S. Han and H. Hu, “Spatial variations and temporal changes in potential evaporation in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China (1960–2006): influenced by irrigation?” Hydrological Processes, vol. 26, no. 20, pp. 3041–3051, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  35. Q. Zhang, J. Li, V. P. Singh, and Y. Bai, “SPI-based evaluation of drought events in Xinjiang, China,” Natural Hazards, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 481–492, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. Y. N. Chen, K. Takeuchi, C. Xu, Y. P. Chen, and Z. X. Xu, “Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 20, no. 10, pp. 2207–2216, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. Y.-N. Chen, W.-H. Li, C.-C. Xu, and X.-M. Hao, “Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China,” Journal of Environmental Sciences, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 488–493, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  38. C. Yaning, X. Changchun, H. Xingming et al., “Fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin, China,” Quaternary International, vol. 208, no. 1-2, pp. 53–61, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  39. H. F. Lee and D. D. Zhang, “Relationship between NAO and drought disasters in northwestern China in the last millennium,” Journal of Arid Environments, vol. 75, no. 11, pp. 1114–1120, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  40. H. Ling, H. Xu, and J. Fu, “Changes in intra-annual runoff and its response to climate change and human activities in the headstream areas of the Tarim River Basin, China,” Quaternary International, vol. 336, no. 26, pp. 158–170, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  41. R. Ouyang, W. Cheng, W. Wang, Y. Jiang, Y. Zhang, and Y. Wang, “Research on runoff forecast approaches to the Aksu River basin,” Science in China, Series D: Earth Sciences, vol. 50, no. 1, supplement, pp. 16–25, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  42. X. L. Wang, “Comment on ‘detection of undocumented change point: a revision of the two-phase regression model’,” Journal of Climate, vol. 16, no. 20, pp. 3383–3385, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  43. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Drought and Agriculture, WMO/TN 138, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland, 1975.
  44. United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), World Atlas of Desertification, United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), 1992.
  45. R. G. Allen, M. E. Jensen, J. L. Wright, and R. D. Burman, “Operational estimates of reference evapotranspiration,” Agronomy Journal, vol. 81, no. 4, pp. 650–662, 1989. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  46. R. G. Allen, L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith, “Crop evapotranspiration. Guidelines for computing crop water requirements,” FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation, Rome, Italy, 1998. View at Google Scholar
  47. M. Bannayan, S. Sanjani, A. Alizadeh, S. S. Lotfabadi, and A. Mohamadian, “Association between climate indices, aridity index, and rainfed crop yield in Northeast of Iran,” Field Crops Research, vol. 118, no. 2, pp. 105–114, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  48. R. R. Heim Jr., “A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 83, no. 8, pp. 1149–1165, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  49. M. V. K. Sivakumar, R. P. Motha, D. A. Wilhite, and D. A. Wood, Agricultural Drought Indices: Proceedings of an Expert Meeting, 2–4 June 2010, Murcia, Spain, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2010.
  50. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales,” in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 179–184, Anaheim, Calif, USA, January 1993.
  51. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “Drought monitoring with multiple time scales,” in Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 233–236, American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass, USA, January 1995.
  52. K. E. Logan, N. A. Brunsell, A. R. Jones, and J. J. Feddema, “Assessing spatiotemporal variability of drought in the U.S. central plains,” Journal of Arid Environments, vol. 74, no. 2, pp. 247–255, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  53. M. J. Hayes, M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite, and O. V. Vanyarkho, “Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 80, no. 3, pp. 429–438, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  54. R. A. Seiler, M. Hayes, and L. Bressan, “Using the standardized precipitation index for flood risk monitoring,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 22, no. 11, pp. 1365–1376, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  55. H. C. S. Thom, “A note on the gamma distribution,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 117–122, 1958. View at Google Scholar
  56. H. C. S. Thom, “Some methods of climatological analysis,” WMO Technical Note 81, Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 1966. View at Google Scholar
  57. D. C. Edwards and T. B. McKee, “Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple scales,” Atmospheric Science Paper 634, 1997. View at Google Scholar
  58. M. Abramowitz and I. A. Stegun, Handbook of Mathematical Functions, Dover Publications, New York, NY, USA, 1965.
  59. I. Bordi, S. Frigio, P. Parenti, A. Speranza, and A. Sutera, “The analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index in the Mediterranean area: large-scale patterns,” Annals of Geophysics, vol. 44, no. 5-6, pp. 965–978, 2001. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  60. B. Lloyd-Hughes and M. A. Saunders, “A drought climatology for Europe,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 22, no. 13, pp. 1571–1592, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  61. B. Bonaccorso, I. Bordi, A. Cancelliere, G. Rossi, and A. Sutera, “Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily,” Water Resources Management, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 273–296, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  62. T. Raziei, B. Saghafian, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, and I. Bordi, “Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Western Iran,” Water Resources Management, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 439–455, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  63. M. Gocic and S. Trajkovic, “Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia,” Global and Planetary Change, vol. 100, pp. 172–182, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  64. M. A. Kohler, “Double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of records and for making adjustments,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 30, pp. 188–189, 1949. View at Google Scholar
  65. T. Niedźwiedź, R. Twardosz, and A. Walanus, “Long-term variability of precipitation series in east central Europe in relation to circulation patterns,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 98, no. 3-4, pp. 337–350, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  66. A. A. Paulo, R. D. Rosa, and L. S. Pereira, “Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 1481–1491, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  67. J. D. Ruiz Sinoga, R. Garcia Marin, J. F. Martinez Murillo, and M. A. Gabarron Galeote, “Precipitation dynamics in southern Spain: trends and cycles,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 31, no. 15, pp. 2281–2289, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  68. M. Unkašević and I. Tošić, “A statistical analysis of the daily precipitation over Serbia: trends and indices,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 106, no. 1-2, pp. 69–78, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  69. H. B. Mann, “Nonparametric tests against trend,” Econometrica, vol. 13, pp. 245–259, 1945. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet
  70. M. G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, UK, 1975.
  71. E. L. Lehmann, Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks, HoldenDay, San Francisco, Calif, USA, 1975.
  72. R. Sneyers, “On the statistical analysis of series of observations,” Technical Note no. 143, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 1990. View at Google Scholar
  73. H. von Storch and A. Navarra, Analysis of Climate Variability—Applications of Statistical Techniques, Springer, New York, NY, USA, 1995.
  74. J. D. Salas, J. W. Delleur, V. M. Yevjevich, and W. L. Lane, Applied Modeling of Hydrologic Time Series, Water Resources Publications, Littleton, Colo, USA, 1980.
  75. M. G. Kendall and A. Stuart, The Advanced Theory of Statistics: Design and Analysis, and Time-Series, vol. 3, Charles Griffin & Company Limited, London, UK, 1968.
  76. M. Gocic and S. Trajkovic, “Software for estimating reference evapotranspiration using limited weather data,” Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 158–162, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  77. M. Gocic and S. Trajkovic, “Service-oriented approach for modeling and estimating reference evapotranspiration,” Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, vol. 79, no. 2, pp. 153–158, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus