Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015 (2015), Article ID 380404, 16 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/380404
Research Article

Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

1Department of Environmental Science, Kenyatta University, P.O. Box 43844-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
2Department of Agricultural Resource Management, Kenyatta University, P.O. Box 43844-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
3Embu University College, P.O. Box 6-60100, Embu, Kenya
4TSBF-CIAT, Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility Institute of CIAT, P.O. Box 30677-00100, Nairobi, Kenya

Received 11 April 2014; Revised 10 August 2014; Accepted 16 August 2014

Academic Editor: Fredrick Semazzi

Copyright © 2015 M. Oscar Kisaka et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59) and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53) in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76) with high probabilities (0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60%) in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.