Research Article

Prediction of Moderate and Heavy Rainfall in New Zealand Using Data Assimilation and Ensemble

Table 1

Description of the 12 ensemble members used in this study.

Member namesDescription

3Dvar3D analysis of surface (including buoys; land synops; ship synops and scatterometer winds), aircraft and radiosondes, AMSU-A, and AMSU-B from the NOAA-15 and NOAA-16 satellites. Half resolution of the model for the analysis grid (0.22 degrees).

3DcliAs 3Dvar but also analyse additional surface observations at climate stations in New Zealand.

3DclimAs 3Dcli but also analyse surface marine observations.

3DclimBAs 3Dclim but uses satellite radiance bias corrections calculated from the 3dclim run.

3DclimCAs 3DclimB but with increased satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) usage through modified thinning.

4Dvar11As 3Dvar but for 4Dvar with analysis grid resolution the same as the model (0.11 degrees).

4D11aAs 4dvar11 but exclude scales <50 km during analysis.

4D11bAs 4dvar11 but exclude scales <100 km during analysis.

4DcliAs 4D11a but also analyse additional surface observations at climate stations in New Zealand.

4DclimAs 4Dcli but also analyse surface marine observations.

4DclimBAs 4Dclim but uses satellite radiance bias corrections calculated from the 4dclim run.

4DclimCAs 4DclimB but with increased AMV usage through modified thinning.