The Effects of Climate Change on Variability of the Growing Seasons in the Elbe River Lowland, Czech Republic

<div>Hovmoller-type diagram of the spatiotemporal evolution of large growing season (<svg height="12.7467pt" id="M43" style="vertical-align:-3.40878pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.33792 51.3458 12.7467" width="51.3458pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z" id="g113-85"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="637" vert-adv-y="637"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,7.479,3.264)"><path d="M797 0V26C739 32 732 36 732 103V296C732 394 682 449 605 449C576 449 550 437 529 423C504 407 475 389 446 366C425 418 382 449 334 449C303 449 279 437 253 421C222 403 201 385 180 371V452C135 432 85 419 41 411V388C99 379 102 374 102 310V103C102 38 93 32 27 26V0H238V26C189 32 180 38 180 103V338C210 363 250 390 289 390C351 390 377 348 377 275V103C377 37 368 32 306 26V0H520V26C465 32 456 38 456 101V296C456 314 455 326 453 338C491 369 529 390 565 390C628 390 653 345 653 274V107C653 36 642 32 583 26V0H797Z" id="g190-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="819" vert-adv-y="819"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,15.208,3.264)"><path d="M380 106C343 72 306 56 265 56C195 56 116 112 115 248C235 252 361 262 377 265C396 269 400 277 400 297C400 374 333 449 250 449H249C198 449 144 421 103 376S37 269 37 201C37 88 109 -12 232 -12C263 -12 332 6 395 84L380 106ZM225 412C281 412 315 364 314 312C314 297 308 292 290 292C232 290 176 289 120 289C135 370 180 412 225 412Z" id="g190-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="425" vert-adv-y="425"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,19.295,3.264)"><path d="M433 39L423 65C413 59 399 54 387 54C370 54 352 69 352 114V299C352 352 342 392 307 422C285 440 255 449 225 449C168 437 102 399 75 379C56 365 44 353 44 339C44 315 69 296 87 296C101 296 111 303 116 319C124 349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z" id="g190-98"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="439" vert-adv-y="439"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,23.373,3.264)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g190-111"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="547" vert-adv-y="547"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,32.923,0)"><path d="M531 285V335L57 550V494L473 310L57 127V71L531 285ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z" id="g117-94"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,44.661,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z" id="g113-54"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg>°C), the main growing season (<svg height="12.7467pt" id="M44" style="vertical-align:-3.40878pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.33792 57.8733 12.7467" width="57.8733pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z" id="g113-85"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="637" vert-adv-y="637"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,7.479,3.264)"><path d="M797 0V26C739 32 732 36 732 103V296C732 394 682 449 605 449C576 449 550 437 529 423C504 407 475 389 446 366C425 418 382 449 334 449C303 449 279 437 253 421C222 403 201 385 180 371V452C135 432 85 419 41 411V388C99 379 102 374 102 310V103C102 38 93 32 27 26V0H238V26C189 32 180 38 180 103V338C210 363 250 390 289 390C351 390 377 348 377 275V103C377 37 368 32 306 26V0H520V26C465 32 456 38 456 101V296C456 314 455 326 453 338C491 369 529 390 565 390C628 390 653 345 653 274V107C653 36 642 32 583 26V0H797Z" id="g190-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="819" vert-adv-y="819"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,15.208,3.264)"><path d="M380 106C343 72 306 56 265 56C195 56 116 112 115 248C235 252 361 262 377 265C396 269 400 277 400 297C400 374 333 449 250 449H249C198 449 144 421 103 376S37 269 37 201C37 88 109 -12 232 -12C263 -12 332 6 395 84L380 106ZM225 412C281 412 315 364 314 312C314 297 308 292 290 292C232 290 176 289 120 289C135 370 180 412 225 412Z" id="g190-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="425" vert-adv-y="425"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,19.295,3.264)"><path d="M433 39L423 65C413 59 399 54 387 54C370 54 352 69 352 114V299C352 352 342 392 307 422C285 440 255 449 225 449C168 437 102 399 75 379C56 365 44 353 44 339C44 315 69 296 87 296C101 296 111 303 116 319C124 349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z" id="g190-98"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="439" vert-adv-y="439"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,23.373,3.264)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g190-111"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="547" vert-adv-y="547"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,32.923,0)"><path d="M531 285V335L57 550V494L473 310L57 127V71L531 285ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z" id="g117-94"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,44.661,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,51.164,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z" id="g113-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg>°C), and the summer growing season (<svg height="12.7467pt" id="M45" style="vertical-align:-3.40878pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -9.33792 57.8733 12.7467" width="57.8733pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M620 675H597C578 656 570 650 541 650H144C112 650 104 653 94 675H72C59 618 42 552 23 493L53 491C71 534 88 564 105 585C124 608 144 615 238 615H290L197 121C182 40 174 34 88 28L82 0H361L367 28C275 34 266 38 281 121L374 615H441C522 615 543 608 553 583C562 560 566 531 565 493L597 494C603 551 612 629 620 675Z" id="g113-85"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="637" vert-adv-y="637"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,7.479,3.264)"><path d="M797 0V26C739 32 732 36 732 103V296C732 394 682 449 605 449C576 449 550 437 529 423C504 407 475 389 446 366C425 418 382 449 334 449C303 449 279 437 253 421C222 403 201 385 180 371V452C135 432 85 419 41 411V388C99 379 102 374 102 310V103C102 38 93 32 27 26V0H238V26C189 32 180 38 180 103V338C210 363 250 390 289 390C351 390 377 348 377 275V103C377 37 368 32 306 26V0H520V26C465 32 456 38 456 101V296C456 314 455 326 453 338C491 369 529 390 565 390C628 390 653 345 653 274V107C653 36 642 32 583 26V0H797Z" id="g190-110"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="819" vert-adv-y="819"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,15.208,3.264)"><path d="M380 106C343 72 306 56 265 56C195 56 116 112 115 248C235 252 361 262 377 265C396 269 400 277 400 297C400 374 333 449 250 449H249C198 449 144 421 103 376S37 269 37 201C37 88 109 -12 232 -12C263 -12 332 6 395 84L380 106ZM225 412C281 412 315 364 314 312C314 297 308 292 290 292C232 290 176 289 120 289C135 370 180 412 225 412Z" id="g190-102"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="425" vert-adv-y="425"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,19.295,3.264)"><path d="M433 39L423 65C413 59 399 54 387 54C370 54 352 69 352 114V299C352 352 342 392 307 422C285 440 255 449 225 449C168 437 102 399 75 379C56 365 44 353 44 339C44 315 69 296 87 296C101 296 111 303 116 319C124 349 133 371 145 385C156 397 171 404 190 404C241 404 275 364 275 291V274C253 256 180 229 120 209C65 190 39 159 39 110C39 47 88 -12 159 -12C189 -12 237 25 277 52C282 35 288 21 301 8C312 -3 333 -12 348 -12L433 39ZM275 84C256 65 221 48 195 48C164 48 124 73 124 124C124 161 146 180 185 198C206 208 254 229 275 240V84Z" id="g190-98"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="439" vert-adv-y="439"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,23.373,3.264)"><path d="M524 0V26C466 32 460 36 460 104V297C460 393 411 449 331 449C302 449 276 437 248 419C223 402 201 387 181 372V451C137 432 90 420 42 411V388C96 378 102 374 102 310V104C102 38 97 33 29 26V0H246V26C187 32 181 36 181 104V339C211 365 250 390 290 390C357 390 381 345 381 276V109C381 40 374 32 315 26V0H524Z" id="g190-111"></path><glyph.data ascent="989" descent="-360" horiz-adv-x="547" vert-adv-y="547"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,32.923,0)"><path d="M531 285V335L57 550V494L473 310L57 127V71L531 285ZM531 -40V10H57V-40H531Z" id="g117-94"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="587" vert-adv-y="587"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,44.661,0)"><path d="M384 0V27C293 34 287 42 287 114V635C232 613 172 594 109 583V559L157 557C201 555 205 550 205 499V114C205 42 199 34 109 27V0H384Z" id="g113-50"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,51.164,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z" id="g113-54"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="480" vert-adv-y="480"></glyph.data></g></svg>°C) projected from 116 grid points × 30 years × 365 days over the Elbe River lowland based on ALADIN-Climate/CZ and RegCM simulation data under the A1B SRES scenario runs (2021–2050 and 2071–2100).</div>

Advances in Meteorology

fig5

Figure 5

Figure 5: The Effects of Climate Change on Variability of the Growing Seasons in the Elbe River Lowland, Czech Republic 