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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2015, Article ID 907313, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/907313
Research Article

Statistical Prediction of the South China Sea Surface Height Anomaly

1National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan 410073, China
2Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology, SOA, National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin 300171, China

Received 16 December 2014; Revised 8 February 2015; Accepted 26 February 2015

Academic Editor: Shaoqing Zhang

Copyright © 2015 Caixia Shao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Based on the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) data, this study analyzes and forecasts the monthly sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) averaged over South China Sea (SCS). The approach to perform the analysis is a time series decomposition method, which decomposes monthly SSHAs in SCS to the following three parts: interannual, seasonal, and residual terms. Analysis results demonstrate that the SODA SSHA time series are significantly correlated to the AVISO SSHA time series in SCS. To investigate the predictability of SCS SSHA, an exponential smoothing approach and an autoregressive integrated moving average approach are first used to fit the interannual and residual terms of SCS SSHA while keeping the seasonal part invariant. Then, an array of forecast experiments with the start time spanning from June 1977 to June 2007 is performed based on the prediction model which integrates the above two models and the time-independent seasonal term. Results indicate that the valid forecast time of SCS SSHA of the statistical model is about 7 months, and the predictability of SCS SSHA in Spring and Autumn is stronger than that in Summer and Winter. In addition, the prediction skill of SCS SSHA has remarkable decadal variability, with better phase forecast in 1997–2007.