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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 1404290, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/1404290
Research Article

Impact of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Upper Basin of the Yellow River Basin of China

1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received 16 October 2015; Revised 21 February 2016; Accepted 17 March 2016

Academic Editor: Jingfeng Wang

Copyright © 2016 Jun Wang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

To reveal the revolution law of hydrologic extremes in the next 50 years and analyze the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes, the following main works were carried on: firstly, the long duration (15 d, 30 d, and 60 d) rainfall extremes according to observed time-series and forecast time-series by dynamical climate model product (BCC-CSM-1.1) were deduced, respectively, on the basis that the quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes was conducted; secondly, the SWAT model was used to deduce design flood with the input of design rainfall for the next 50 years. On this basis, quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on long duration flood volume extremes was conducted. It indicates that (1) the value of long duration rainfall extremes for given probabilities (1%, 2%, 5%, and 10%) of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years and (2) long duration flood volume extremes of given probabilities of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years. The conclusions may provide technical supports for basin level planning of flood control and hydropower production.