Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 1879024, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/1879024
Research Article

Assessment of Meteorological Drought in Korea under Climate Change

1Forecast and Control Division, Nakdong River Flood Control Office, Busan 49300, Republic of Korea
2Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
3Department of Safety and Environment Research, Seoul Institute, Seoul 06756, Republic of Korea
4Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, TX 77843, USA
5Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Republic of Korea
6Department of Civil Engineering, INHA University, Incheon 22212, Republic of Korea

Received 22 June 2016; Accepted 17 October 2016

Academic Editor: Guillermo Baigorria

Copyright © 2016 Jaewon Kwak et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. D. A. Wilhite, “Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions,” in Drought, A Global Assessment, Routledge, New York, NY, USA, 2000. View at Google Scholar
  2. Y. Mao, B. Nijssen, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Is climate change implicated in the 2013-2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, no. 8, pp. 2805–2813, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  3. Z. Hao, A. AghaKouchak, N. Nakhjiri, and A. Farahmand, “Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system,” Scientific Data, vol. 1, Article ID 140001, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  4. J. Saba, M. Moghaddam, K. Ghassemi, and M. R. Nishabouri, “Genetic properties of drought resistance indices,” Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 43–49, 2001. View at Google Scholar
  5. J. Ashkani, H. Pakniyat, Y. Emam, M. T. Assad, and M. J. Bahrani, “The evaluation and relationships of some physiological traits in spring safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) under stress and non-stress water regimes,” Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 267–277, 2007. View at Google Scholar
  6. N. Ghaderi, A. R. Talai, A. Ebadi, and H. Lessani, “The physiological response of three Iranian grape cultivars to progressive drought stress,” Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 601–610, 2011. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  7. T. L. Kumar, H. Barbosa, K. K. Rao, and E. P. Jothi, “Some studies on the frequency of extreme weather events over India,” Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 1343–1356, 2012. View at Google Scholar
  8. T. T. Munger, “Graphic method of representing and comparing drought intensities,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 44, no. 11, pp. 642–643, 1916. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  9. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “Drought monitoring with multiple time scales,” in Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 233–236, American Meteorological Society, Dallas, Tex, USA, 1985.
  10. E. E. Moreira, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, and J. T. Mexia, “Analysis of SPI drought class transitions using loglinear models,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 331, no. 1-2, pp. 349–359, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. S. Michaelides and S. Pashiardis, “Monitoring drought in Cyprus during the 2007-2008 hydrometeorological year by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI),” European Water, vol. 23, no. 24, pp. 123–131, 2008. View at Google Scholar
  12. C. Palmer Wayne, Meteorological Drought, US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, USA, 1965.
  13. E. Liang, X. Shao, H. Liu, and D. Eckstein, “Tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction since AD 1842 in the Ortindag Sand Land, east Inner Mongolia,” Chinese Science Bulletin, vol. 52, no. 19, pp. 2715–2721, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  14. W. C. Palmer, “Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: the new crop moisture index,” Weatherwise, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 156–161, 1968. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  15. D. C. Garen, “Revised surface‐water supply index for Western United States,” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, vol. 119, no. 4, pp. 437–454, 1993. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  16. F. N. Kogan, “Droughts of the late 1980s in the United States as derived from NOAA polar-orbiting satellite data,” Bulletin—American Meteorological Society, vol. 76, no. 5, pp. 655–668, 1995. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  17. H.-R. Byun and D. A. Wilhite, “Objective quantification of drought severity and duration,” Journal of Climate, vol. 12, no. 9, pp. 2747–2756, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  18. B. Narasimhan and R. Srinivasan, “Development and evaluation of Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) and Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) for agricultural drought monitoring,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 133, no. 1–4, pp. 69–88, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  19. S. Shukla and A. W. Wood, “Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 35, no. 2, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  20. X. Xiao, S. Boles, J. Liu, D. Zhuang, and M. Liu, “Characterization of forest types in Northeastern China, using multi-temporal SPOT-4 VEGETATION sensor data,” Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 82, no. 2-3, pp. 335–348, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  21. M. Svoboda, D. LeComte, M. Hayes et al., “The drought monitor,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 83, no. 8, pp. 1181–1190, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  22. J. Rhee, J. Im, and G. J. Carbone, “Monitoring agricultural drought for arid and humid regions using multi-sensor remote sensing data,” Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 114, no. 12, pp. 2875–2887, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  23. P. Han, P. X. Wang, S. Y. Zhang, and D. H. Zhu, “Drought forecasting based on the remote sensing data using ARIMA models,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, vol. 51, no. 11-12, pp. 1398–1403, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  24. A. K. Mishra and V. R. Desai, “Drought forecasting using stochastic models,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 326–339, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. R. Modarres, “Streamflow drought time series forecasting,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 223–233, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet · View at Scopus
  26. A. Cancelliere and J. D. Salas, “Drought length properties for periodic‐stochastic hydrologic data,” Water Resources Research, vol. 40, no. 2, 2004. View at Google Scholar
  27. A. K. Mishra, V. R. Desai, and V. P. Singh, “Drought forecasting using a hybrid stochastic and neural network model,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 626–638, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. A. Belayneh, J. Adamowski, B. Khalil, and B. Ozga-Zielinski, “Long-term SPI drought forecasting in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia using wavelet neural network and wavelet support vector regression models,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 508, pp. 418–429, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  29. R. Chifurira and D. Chikobvu, “A probit regression model approach for predicting drought probabilities in Zimbabwe using the Southern Oscillation Index,” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, vol. 5, no. 20, pp. 656–663, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  30. K. Fang, N. Davi, X. Gou et al., “Spatial drought reconstructions for central High Asia based on tree rings,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 35, no. 6, pp. 941–951, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  31. N. B. Guttman, “Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 311–322, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  32. V. Yevjevich, An Objective Approach to Definitions and Investigations of Continental Hydrologic Drought, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo, USA, 1967.
  33. J. A. Dracup, K. S. Lee, and E. G. Paulson Jr., “On the statistical characteristics of drought events,” Water Resources Research, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 289–296, 1980. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. H. A. Loaiciga and R. B. Leipnik, “Stochastic renewal model of low-flow streamflow sequences,” Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 65–85, 1996. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  35. T. C. Sharma, “Estimation of drought severity on independent and dependent hydrologic series,” Water Resources Management, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 35–49, 1997. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. J. T. Shiau, “Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas,” Water Resources Management, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 795–815, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. J. T. Shiau, S. Feng, and S. Nadarajah, “Assessment of hydrological droughts for the Yellow River, China, using Copulas,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 21, no. 16, pp. 2157–2163, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  38. J. Kwak, D. Kim, S. Kim, V. P. Singh, and H. Kim, “Hydrological Drought Analysis in Namhan River Basin, Korea,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 19, no. 8, Article ID 05014001, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  39. F. Serinaldi, B. Bonaccorso, A. Cancelliere, and S. Grimaldi, “Probabilistic characterization of drought properties through copulas,” Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C, vol. 34, no. 10–12, pp. 596–605, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  40. E. Borgomeo, G. Pflug, J. W. Hall, and S. Hochrainer-Stigler, “Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit,” Water Resources Research, vol. 51, no. 11, pp. 8927–8948, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  41. J. T. Shiau and R. Modarres, “Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran,” Meteorological Applications, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 481–489, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  42. S. Madadgar and H. Moradkhani, “Drought analysis under climate change using copula,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 746–759, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  43. R. Mirabbasi, A. Fakheri-Fard, and Y. Dinpashoh, “Bivariate drought frequency analysis using the copula method,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 108, no. 1-2, pp. 191–206, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  44. K. Xu, D. Yang, X. Xu, and H. Lei, “Copula based drought frequency analysis considering the spatio-temporal variability in Southwest China,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 527, pp. 630–640, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  45. E. J. Burke, S. J. Brown, and N. Christidis, “Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre climate model,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 1113–1125, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  46. F. Mpelasoka, K. Hennessy, R. Jones, and B. Bates, “Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia towards resource management,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 28, no. 10, pp. 1283–1292, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  47. S. Blenkinsop and H. J. Fowler, “Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 27, no. 12, pp. 1595–1610, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  48. Y. Li, W. Ye, M. Wang, and X. Yan, “Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop-yield impacts,” Climate Research, vol. 39, pp. 31–46, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  49. Y. Choi, “Trends on temperature and precipitation extreme events in Korea,” Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, vol. 39, pp. 711–721, 2004 (Korean). View at Google Scholar
  50. J.-W. Lee, S.-Y. Hong, E.-C. Chang, M.-S. Suh, and H.-S. Kang, “Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 42, no. 3-4, pp. 733–747, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  51. W.-H. Nam, M. J. Hayes, M. D. Svoboda, T. Tadesse, and D. A. Wilhite, “Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea,” Agricultural Water Management, vol. 160, pp. 106–117, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  52. C. J. Kim, M. J. Park, and J. H. Lee, “Analysis of climate change impacts on the spatial and frequency patterns of drought using a potential drought hazard mapping approach,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 61–80, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  53. J. Xia, L. Ning, Q. Wang, J. Chen, L. Wan, and S. Hong, “Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change,” Climatic Change, vol. 1, pp. 15–23, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  54. L. Wang and W. Chen, “A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature, precipitation, and climatological drought in China,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 2059–2078, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  55. Y. Li, H. Huang, H. Ju et al., “Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity to potential drought for winter-wheat under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, vol. 209, pp. 125–131, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  56. L. Wang, W. Chen, and W. Zhou, “Assessment of future drought in Southwest China based on CMIP5 multimodel projections,” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 1035–1050, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  57. D. Praveen, A. Ramachandran, R. Jaganathan, E. Krishnaveni, and K. Palanivelu, “Projecting droughts in the purview of climate change under RCP 4.5 for the Coastal Districts of South India,” Indian Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 9, no. 6, 2016. View at Google Scholar
  58. M. Dubrovsky, M. D. Svoboda, M. Trnka et al., “Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 96, no. 1-2, pp. 155–171, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  59. A. K. Mishra and V. P. Singh, “Analysis of drought severity-area-frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty,” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 114, no. 6, p. 18, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  60. U. Kim and J. J. Kaluarachchi, “Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 45, no. 6, pp. 1361–1378, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  61. S. Ghosh and P. P. Mujumdar, “Climate change impact assessment: uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability,” Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 114, no. 18, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  62. V. Mishra, K. A. Cherkauer, and S. Shukla, “Assessment of drought due to historic climate variability and projected future climate change in the Midwestern United States,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 46–68, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  63. R. M. S. Yu, T. Osborn, D. Conway, R. Warren, and R. Hankin, “European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections,” in Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2012, vol. 14, p. 563, Vienna, Austria, April 2012.
  64. A. K. Gobena and T. Y. Gan, “Assessment of trends and possible climate change impacts on summer moisture availability in western canada based on metrics of the palmer drought severity index,” Journal of Climate, vol. 26, no. 13, pp. 4583–4595, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  65. M. A. Asadi Zarch, B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma, “Droughts in a warming climate: a global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI),” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 526, pp. 183–195, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  66. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 5th Report, IPCC Press, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014.
  67. U. S. Panu and T. C. Sharma, “Challenges in drought research: some perspectives and future directions,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 47, supplement 1, pp. S19–S30, 2002. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  68. A. Mishra and V. Desai, “Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the Kansabati river basin, India,” International Journal of River Basin Management, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 31–41, 2005. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  69. M. Mirakbari, A. Ganji, and S. R. Fallah, “Regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts,” Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 15, no. 12, pp. 985–1000, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  70. X. Hong, S. Guo, L. Xiong, and Z. Liu, “Spatial and temporal analysis of drought using entropy-based standardized precipitation index: a case study in Poyang Lake basin, China,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 122, no. 3-4, pp. 543–556, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  71. X.-F. Liu, S.-X. Wang, Y. Zhou, F.-T. Wang, G. Yang, and W.-L. Liu, “Spatial analysis of meteorological drought return periods in China using copulas,” Natural Hazards, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 367–388, 2016. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  72. R. B. Nelsen, An Introduction to Copulas, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet
  73. J. C. Rodriguez, “Measuring financial contagion: a copula approach,” Journal of Empirical Finance, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 401–423, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  74. J. S. Ryu, J. Ahn, and S. Kim, “An application of drought severity-area-duration curves using copulas-based joint drought index,” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, vol. 45, no. 10, pp. 1043–1050, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  75. M. Kyoung, J. Kwak, D. Kim, H. Kim, and V. P. Singh, “Drought analysis based on SPI and SAD curve for the korean peninsula considering climate change,” in Climate Change—Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, J. Blanco, Ed., InTech, London, UK, 2011. View at Google Scholar
  76. C. Saad, S. El Adlouni, A. St-Hilaire, and P. Gachon, “A nested multivariate copula approach to hydrometeorological simulations of spring floods: the case of the Richelieu River (Québec, Canada) record flood,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 275–294, 2015. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  77. S. E. Adlouni and T. B. M. J. Ouarda, “Joint Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation of the generalized extreme value model with covariates using birth-death Markov chain Monte Carlo,” Water Resources Research, vol. 45, no. 6, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  78. C.-L. Liu, Q. Zhang, V. P. Singh, and Y. Cui, “Copula-based evaluations of drought variations in Guangdong, South China,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 1533–1546, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  79. P. Lynch, The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2014. View at MathSciNet
  80. G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, T. Delworth et al., “The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 88, no. 9, pp. 1383–1394, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  81. J. Sillmann, V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh, “Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate,” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 118, no. 4, pp. 1716–1733, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  82. K. E. Trenberth, J. T. Houghton, and L. G. Meira Filho, The Climate System: An Overview, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 1996.
  83. “IPCC: table SPM-2, in: summary for Policymakers,” in IPCC AR5 WG1, p. 21, 2013.
  84. M. Meinshausen, S. J. Smith, K. Calvin et al., “The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300,” Climatic Change, vol. 109, no. 1-2, pp. 213–241, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  85. C. Cho, “Regional climate projection for East Asia and Korea using the HadGEM3-RA,” in Proceedings of the 5th Korea-Japan-China Joint Conference on Meteorology, vol. 89, Busan, Republic of Korea, 2011.
  86. Korea Global Atmosphere Watch Center, KGAWC, 2015, https://www.climate.go.kr.
  87. Water Management Information System (WAMIS, 2016), http://www.wamis.go.kr.
  88. L. A. Moyé, A. S. Kapadia, I. M. Cech, and R. J. Hardy, “The theory of runs with applications to drought prediction,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 103, no. 1-2, pp. 127–137, 1988. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus