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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 7463963, 12 pages
Research Article

Comparison of Three Statistical Downscaling Methods and Ensemble Downscaling Method Based on Bayesian Model Averaging in Upper Hanjiang River Basin, China

1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2College of Tourism Culture and Geographical Science, Huanggang Normal University, Huanggang 438000, China
3Shanghai Branch of Yangtze River Water Resources Protection Bureau, Shanghai 200120, China

Received 25 June 2015; Revised 29 September 2015; Accepted 11 October 2015

Academic Editor: Alexander Gelfan

Copyright © 2016 Jiaming Liu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. To improve the simulation accuracy of downscaling methods, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method combined with three statistical downscaling methods, which are support vector machine (SVM), BCC/RCG-Weather Generators (BCC/RCG-WG), and Statistics Downscaling Model (SDSM), is proposed in this study, based on the statistical relationship between the larger scale climate predictors and observed precipitation in upper Hanjiang River Basin (HRB). The statistical analysis of three performance criteria (the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, the coefficient of correlation, and the relative error) shows that the performance of ensemble downscaling method based on BMA for rainfall is better than that of each single statistical downscaling method. Moreover, the performance for the runoff modelled by the SWAT rainfall-runoff model using the downscaled daily rainfall by four methods is also compared, and the ensemble downscaling method has better simulation accuracy. The ensemble downscaling technology based on BMA can provide scientific basis for the study of runoff response to climate change.