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Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 8152413, 11 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/8152413
Research Article

Verification of Forecast Weather Surface Variables over Vietnam Using the National Numerical Weather Prediction System

1National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 4 Dang Thai Than Street, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam
2Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen 5007, Norway

Received 18 December 2015; Revised 19 April 2016; Accepted 8 May 2016

Academic Editor: Jorge E. Gonzalez

Copyright © 2016 Tien Du Duc et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The national numerical weather prediction system of Vietnam is presented and evaluated. The system is based on three main models, namely, the Japanese Global Spectral Model, the US Global Forecast System, and the US Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The global forecast products have been received at 0.25- and 0.5-degree horizontal resolution, respectively, and the WRF model has been run locally with 16 km horizontal resolution at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting using lateral conditions from GSM and GFS. The model performance is evaluated by comparing model output against observations of precipitation, wind speed, and temperature at 168 weather stations, with daily data from 2010 to 2014. In general, the global models provide more accurate forecasts than the regional models, probably due to the low horizontal resolution in the regional model. Also, the model performance is poorer for stations with altitudes greater than 500 meters above sea level (masl). For tropical cyclone performance validations, the maximum wind surface forecast from global and regional models is also verified against the best track of Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, the model forecast skill during a recent extreme rain event in northeast Vietnam is evaluated.