| | Date | Test set MSE °C | % variability explained | Variable importance (from most important to least important) |
| | 22 April 2013, morning | 0.13 | 70.57 | Basis, elevation, NLCD IS, slope, aspect, and TCC | | 22 April 2013 morning includes lag-1 | 0.14 | 68.92 | Basis, elevation, NLCD IS, TCC, slope, aspect, and lag-1 | | 22 April 2013, afternoon | 0.03 | 82.36 | Elevation, basis, NLCD IS, aspect, TCC, and slope | | 23 April 2013 morning | 0.09 | 60.50 | Basis, elevation, NLCD IS, slope, aspect, and TCC | | 23 April 2013 morning includes lag-1 | 0.06 | 71.59 | Elevation, basis, lag-1, NLCD IS, slope, aspect, and TCC | | 23 April 2013 afternoon | 0.06 | 65.82 | Basis, elevation, NLCD IS, aspect, slope, and TCC | | 2 July 2014 | 0.09 | 84.53 | Basis, elevation, NLCD IS, slope, aspect, and TCC | | 2 July 2014 includes lag-1 | 0.05 | 90.77 | Basis, lag-1, elevation, NLCD IS, slope, TCC, and aspect | | 3 July 2014 | 0.14 | 72.12 | Basis, elevation, slope, NLCD IS, aspect, and TCC | | 3 July 2014 includes lag-1 | 0.10 | 78.96 | Basis, elevation, lag-1, aspect, NLCD IS, slope, and TCC | | 4 July 2014 | 0.04 | 78.89 | Basis, NLCD IS, slope, elevation, TCC, and aspect | | 4 July 2014 includes lag-1 | 0.03 | 85.92 | lag-1, basis, elevation, NLCD IS, slope, aspect, and TCC | | 26 October 2013, 01:00–02:00 | 0.03 | 76.08 | Elevation, basis, slope, aspect, TCC, and NLCD IS | | 26 October 2013, 02:00–03:00 | 0.05 | 88.45 | Basis, elevation, aspect, slope, NLCD IS, and TCC | | 26 October 2013, 03:00–04:00 | 0.03 | 73.25 | Elevation, basis, NLCD IS, slope, TCC, and aspect | | 26 October 2013, 04:00–05:00 | 0.04 | 87.58 | Basis, elevation, slope, aspect, NLCD IS, and TCC | | 25 November 2013, early morning | 0.04 | 87.16 | Basis, elevation, slope, NLCD IS, TCC, and aspect | | 25 November 2013, noon | 0.03 | 80.64 | Basis, elevation, NLCD IS, slope, aspect, and TCC | | 25 November 2013, midafternoon | 0.04 | 88.7 | Basis, elevation, aspect, NLCD IS, TCC, and slope |
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