Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2016, Article ID 9164265, 19 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9164265
Research Article

Future Changes in Drought Characteristics under Extreme Climate Change over South Korea

1Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University, Daeja-dong, Deogyang-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 10279, Republic of Korea
2Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University, 567 Baekje-daero, Deokjin-gu, Jeonju-si, Jeollabuk-do 54896, Republic of Korea
3Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 55 Hanyangdaehak-ro, Sangnok-gu, Ansan-si, Gyeonggi-do 15588, Republic of Korea

Received 1 February 2016; Accepted 23 June 2016

Academic Editor: Jorge E. Gonzalez

Copyright © 2016 Joo-Heon Lee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Linked References

  1. H.-H. Kwon, A. F. Khalil, and T. Siegfried, “Analysis of extreme summer rainfall using climate teleconnections and typhoon characteristics in South Korea,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 436–448, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  2. H.-H. Kwon, C. Brown, and U. Lall, “Climate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in Montana using hierarchical Bayesian modeling,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 35, no. 5, Article ID L05404, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  3. H.-H. Kwon, B. Sivakumar, Y.-I. Moon, and B.-S. Kim, “Assessment of change in design flood frequency under climate change using a multivariate downscaling model and a precipitation-runoff model,” Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 567–581, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  4. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007.
  5. S. Jain and U. Lall, “Floods in a changing climate: does the past represent the future?” Water Resources Research, vol. 37, no. 12, pp. 3193–3205, 2001. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  6. J. Yoo, H.-H. Kwon, T.-W. Kim, and J.-H. Ahn, “Drought frequency analysis using cluster analysis and bivariate probability distribution,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 420-421, pp. 102–111, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  7. M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, T. Zhang, and P. Pegion, “On the increased frequency of mediterranean drought,” Journal of Climate, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 2146–2161, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  8. B. Nandintsetseg and M. Shinoda, “Assessment of drought frequency, duration, and severity and its impact on pasture production in Mongolia,” Natural Hazards, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 995–1008, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  9. M. Zhang, J. He, B. Wang et al., “Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009,” Journal of Geographical Sciences, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 3–16, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  10. J. Spinoni, G. Naumann, H. Carrao, P. Barbosa, and J. Vogt, “World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 34, no. 8, pp. 2792–2804, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  11. J. R. Olsen, J. R. Stedinger, N. C. Matalas, and E. Z. Stakhiv, “Climate variability and flood frequency estimation for the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 35, no. 6, pp. 1509–1523, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  12. A. Sankarasubramanian and U. Lall, “Flood quantiles in a changing climate: seasonal forecasts and causal relations,” Water Resources Research, vol. 39, no. 5, 2003. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  13. J. H. Lee, J. W. Seo, and C. J. Kim, “Analysis on trends, periodicities and frequencies of korean drought using drought indices,” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 75–89, 2012 (Korean). View at Google Scholar
  14. J.-J. Lee, H.-H. Kwon, and T.-W. Kim, “Spatio-temporal analysis of extreme precipitation regimes across South Korea and its application to regionalization,” Journal of Hydro-Environment Research, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 101–110, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  15. H. H. Kwon and Y. I. Moon, “Analysis of hydrologic time series using wavelet transform,” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 439–448, 2005 (Korean). View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  16. H. H. Kwon and Y. I. Moon, “Correlation analysis between palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and ENSO indices,” Journal of Korean Society Civil Engineering, vol. 25, no. 5, pp. 355–358, 2005 (Korean). View at Google Scholar
  17. S. Kim, “Wavelet analysis of precipitation variability in northern California, U.S.A.,” Journal of Korean Society Civil Engineering, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 471–477, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  18. Y. N. Yoon, J. H. Ahn, and D. R. Lee, “A study of drought severity index using palmer method,” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 317–326, 1997 (Korean). View at Google Scholar
  19. C. J. Kim, J. W. Seo, M. J. Park, J. S. Shin, and J. H. Lee, “Climate change and future drought occurrence of Korean,” in Proceeding of the Korea Society of Hazard Mitigation, vol. 205, 2011 (Korean).
  20. G. Choi, W.-T. Kwon, K.-O. Boo, and Y.-M. Cha, “Recent spatial and temporal changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation across the Republic of Korea,” Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, vol. 43, no. 5, pp. 681–700, 2008. View at Google Scholar
  21. K.-O. Boo, W.-T. Kwon, J.-H. Oh, and H.-J. Baek, “Response of global warming on regional climate change over Korea: an experiment with the MM5 model,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31, no. 21, Article ID L21206, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  22. W. A. Landman and S. J. Mason, “Change in the association between Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures and summer rainfall over South Africa and Namibia,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 19, no. 13, pp. 1477–1492, 1999. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  23. W. A. Landman, S. J. Mason, P. D. Tyson, and W. J. Tennant, “Retro-active skill of multi-tiered forecasts of summer rainfall over southern Africa,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1–19, 2001. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  24. H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, and A. F. Khalil, “Stochastic simulation model for nonstationary time series using an autoregressive wavelet decomposition: applications to rainfall and temperature,” Water Resources Research, vol. 43, no. 5, Article ID W05407, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  25. N. E. Huang, Z. Shen, S. R. Long et al., “The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis,” Proceedings of the Royal Society of London—Series A: Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 454, no. 1971, pp. 903–995, 1998. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet
  26. C. Torrence and G. P. Compo, “A practical guide to wavelet analysis,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 79, no. 1, pp. 61–78, 1998. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  27. A. Grinsted, J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, “Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical times series,” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol. 11, no. 5-6, pp. 561–566, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  28. R. Essery, “Seasonal snow cover and climate change in the Hadley Centre GCM,” Annals of Glaciology, vol. 25, pp. 362–266, 1997. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  29. K. W. Dixon and J. R. Lanzante, “Global mean surface air temperature and North Atlantic overturning in a suite of coupled GCM climate change experiments,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 26, no. 13, Article ID 1999GL900382, pp. 1885–1888, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  30. F. Vitart and T. N. Stockdale, “Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 129, no. 10, pp. 2521–2537, 2001. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  31. D. P. Rowell, “Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations,” Journal of Climate, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 109–120, 1998. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  32. A. W. Robertson, S. Kirshner, and P. Smyth, “Downscaling of daily rainfall occurrence over Northeast Brazil using a hidden Markov model,” Journal of Climate, vol. 17, no. 22, pp. 4407–4424, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  33. A. W. Robertson, U. Lall, S. E. Zebiak, and L. Goddard, “Improved combination of multiple atmospheric GCM ensembles for seasonal prediction,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 132, no. 12, pp. 2732–2744, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  34. A. F. Khalil, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, and Y. H. Kaheil, “Predictive downscaling based on non-homogeneous hidden Markov models,” Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 333–350, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  35. J. M. Mendes, K. F. Turkman, and J. Corte-Real, “A Bayesian hierarchical model for local precipitation by downscaling large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,” Environmetrics, vol. 17, no. 7, pp. 721–738, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  36. F. Giorgi and L. O. Mearns, “Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: a review,” Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 191–216, 1991. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  37. J. Murphy, “An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate,” Journal of Climate, vol. 12, no. 8, pp. 2256–2284, 1999. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  38. J. H. Christensen, F. Boberg, O. B. Christensen, and P. Lucas-Picher, “On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 35, no. 20, Article ID L20709, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  39. D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A. M. Ireson et al., “Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user,” Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 48, no. 3, Article ID RG3003, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  40. C. Teutschbein and J. Seibert, “Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 456-457, pp. 12–29, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  41. J. A. Winkler, G. S. Guentchev, M. Liszewska, Perdinan, and P.-N. Tan, “Climate scenario development and applications for local/regional climate change impact assessments: an overview for the non-climate scientist—part II: considerations when using climate change scenarios,” Geography Compass, vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 301–328, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  42. J. A. Winkler, G. S. Guentchev, S. Perdinan et al., “Climate scenario development and applications for local/regional climate change impact assessments: an overview for the non-climate scientist—part I: scenario development using downscaling methods climate scenario development and applications I,” Geography Compass, vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 275–300, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  43. J. H. Christensen, B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc et al., “Regional climate projections,” in Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WGI to the IPCC AR4, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 2007. View at Google Scholar
  44. E.-S. Im, I.-W. Jung, H. Chang, D.-H. Bae, and W.-T. Kwon, “Hydroclimatological response to dynamically downscaled climate change simulations for Korean basins,” Climatic Change, vol. 100, no. 3, pp. 485–508, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  45. A. W. Wood, L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs,” Climatic Change, vol. 62, no. 1–3, pp. 189–216, 2004. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  46. J. H. Lee and C. J. Kim, “A multimodel assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity-duration-frequency relationship,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 27, no. 19, pp. 2800–2813, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  47. K.-Y. Kim and G. R. North, “EOFs of harmonizable cyclostationary processes,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 54, no. 19, pp. 2416–2427, 1997. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  48. Y.-K. Lim, D. W. Shin, S. Cocke et al., “Dynamically and statistically downscaled seasonal simulations of maximum surface air temperature over the southeastern United States,” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 112, no. 24, Article ID D24, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  49. A. N. Sharpley and J. R. Williams, “Erosion/productivity impact calculator: 1. Model documentation,” Technical Bulletin 1768, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA, 1990. View at Google Scholar
  50. D. H. Bae, I. W. Jung, B. J. Lee, and M. H. Lee, “Future Korean water resources projection considering uncertainty of GCMs and hydrological models,” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 389–406, 2011 (Korean). View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  51. D.-H. Bae, I.-W. Jung, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Hydrologic uncertainties in climate change from IPCC AR4 GCM simulations of the Chungju basin, Korea,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 401, no. 1-2, pp. 90–105, 2011. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  52. C. W. Richardson, “Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation,” Water Resources Research, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 182–190, 1981. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  53. I. W. Jung, D. H. Bae, and B. J. Lee, “Possible change in Korean streamflow seasonality based on multi-model climate projections,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 1033–1045, 2013. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  54. S. L. Neitsch, J. R. Williams, J. G. Arnold, and J. R. Kiniry, Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2009, Texas Water Resources Institute, College Station, Tex, USA, 2011.
  55. J. Schuol and K. C. Abbaspour, “Using monthly weather statistics to generate daily data in a SWAT model application to West Africa,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 201, no. 3-4, pp. 301–311, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  56. B. Dixon and J. Earls, “Effects of urbanization on streamflow using SWAT with real and simulated meteorological data,” Applied Geography, vol. 35, no. 1-2, pp. 174–190, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  57. J. Schuol, K. C. Abbaspour, R. Srinivasan, and H. Yang, “Estimation of freshwater availability in the West African sub-continent using the SWAT hydrologic model,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 352, no. 1-2, pp. 30–49, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  58. D. L. Ficklin, Y. Luo, E. Luedeling, and M. Zhang, “Climate change sensitivity assessment of a highly agricultural watershed using SWAT,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 374, no. 1-2, pp. 16–29, 2009. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  59. Y. Wu, S. Liu, and O. I. Abdul-Aziz, “Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT,” Climatic Change, vol. 110, no. 3-4, pp. 977–1003, 2012. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  60. P. B. Parajuli, “Assessing sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate change from forested watershed in Mississippi,” Hydrological Processes, vol. 24, no. 26, pp. 3785–3797, 2010. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  61. H. N. Hayhoe, “Relationship between weather variables in observed and WXGEN generated data series,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 203–214, 1998. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  62. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales,” in Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 179–184, Anaheim, Calif, USA, January 1993.
  63. T. B. McKee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, “Drought monitoring with multiple time scales,” in Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 233–236, Dallas, Tex, USA, January 1995.
  64. H. C. Thom, “A note on the gamma distribution,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 117–122, 1958. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  65. H. C. S. Thom, “Some methods of climatological analysis. WMO N. 199,” Technical Note N. 81, World Meteorological Organization, Ginevra, Switzerland, 1966. View at Google Scholar
  66. H. A. Panofsky and G. W. Brier, Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State College, Pa, USA, 1958.
  67. H. B. Mann, “Nonparametric tests against trend,” Econometrica, vol. 13, pp. 245–259, 1945. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at MathSciNet
  68. M. G. Kendall, Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin, London, UK, 1975.
  69. R. O. Gilbert, Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, USA, 1987.
  70. J. D. Gibbons, Handbook of Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists, McGraw-Hill Education, New York, NY, USA, 1990.
  71. R. W. Katz and B. G. Brown, “Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages,” Climatic Change, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 289–302, 1992. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  72. G. A. Meehl, T. Karl, D. R. Easterling et al., “An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 81, no. 3, pp. 413–416, 2000. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar
  73. H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, Y.-I. Moon, A. F. Khalil, and H. Ahn, “Episodic interannual climate oscillations and their influence on seasonal rainfall in the Everglades National Park,” Water Resources Research, vol. 42, no. 11, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  74. C. K. Chui, An Introduction to Wavelets, Wavelet Analysis and Its Application, vol. 1, Academic Press, Boston, Mass, USA, 1992.
  75. E. Foufoula-Georgiou and P. Kumar, Wavelet in Geophysics, Academic Press, London, UK, 1994.
  76. G. Kaiser, A Friendly Guide to Wavelets, Birkhäuser, Boston, Mass, USA, 1994. View at MathSciNet
  77. E. P. Maurer, “Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios,” Climatic Change, vol. 82, no. 3-4, pp. 309–325, 2007. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  78. M. A. Semenov and E. M. Barrow, “Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios,” Climatic Change, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 397–414, 1997. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  79. C. J. Kim, M. J. Park, and J. H. Lee, “Analysis of climate change impacts on the spatial and frequency patterns of drought using a potential drought hazard mapping approach,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 61–80, 2014. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  80. K. K. Kumar and T. V. R. Rao, “Dry and wet spells at Campina Grande-PB,” Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 71–74, 2005. View at Google Scholar
  81. A. A. Tsonis and J. B. Elsner, “Global temperature as a regulator of climate predictability,” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, vol. 108, no. 1-2, pp. 191–196, 1997. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  82. A. A. Tsonis, “Is global warming injecting randomness into the climate system?” Eos, vol. 85, no. 38, pp. 361–364, 2004. View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  83. M. C. Peel and T. A. McMahon, “Recent frequency component changes in interannual climate variability,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, no. 16, Article ID L16810, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  84. X. J. Gao, Y. Xu, Z. C. Zhao, J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi, “On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 86, no. 1–4, pp. 173–185, 2006. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus
  85. X. J. Gao, Y. Shi, R. Song, F. Giorgi, Y. Wang, and D. Zhang, “Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 100, no. 1–4, pp. 73–86, 2008. View at Publisher · View at Google Scholar · View at Scopus