Table 5: Changes in the frequency in severe dry stages with three-month SPI less than −1.5 for past and future climate change projections. Observed frequency of severe drought for the period 1976–2010 and projected change in frequency of severe drought by each GCM and MME average for the period 2011–2099 for the climate change scenario. Difference is a percentage change in drought frequency between past and future periods, and positive value indicates increasing trend and vice versa. Note that the SPI series is calculated from a downscaled monthly precipitation using the four GCMs as inputs.

NameIDObservedCNRMCSIROECHOGHADCMMMEDiff (%)

Han River106.004.134.937.265.385.42−10.68
Anseong Stream116.103.994.907.355.545.44−12.14
West of Han River126.044.004.607.685.675.48−10.18
East of Han River136.174.715.526.005.715.48−12.49
Nakdong River207.304.566.026.366.125.76−26.66
East of Nakdong River246.105.186.156.135.825.82−4.85
South of Nakdong River256.344.676.996.666.686.25−1.39
Hyeongsan River216.825.206.506.505.996.05−12.75
Taehwa River226.695.517.386.896.236.50−2.97
Hoeya, Sooyeong236.525.467.246.946.326.49−0.52
Geum River307.194.355.456.815.725.58−28.81
Sapgyo Stream316.414.334.956.895.595.44−17.87
West of Geum River326.184.384.796.815.475.36−15.19
Mangyeong, Dongjin337.334.375.426.445.995.55−31.98
Seomjin River407.654.165.386.276.355.54−38.12
South of Seomjin River416.864.015.656.216.585.61−22.21
Yeongsan River507.433.924.836.036.315.27−40.97
Tamjin River516.023.754.885.996.405.26−14.59
South of Yeongsan River526.783.934.965.916.195.25−29.16
West of Yeongsan River537.043.975.046.096.325.36−31.51