Table 6: Changes in the severity of drought in severe dry stages with three-month SPI less than −1.5 for past and future climate change projections. Observed severity of drought for the period 1976–2010 and projected change in severity of drought by each GCM and MME average for the period 2011–2099 for the climate change scenario. Difference is a percentage change in severity of drought between past and future periods, and positive value indicates increasing trend and vice versa. Note that the SPI series is calculated from a downscaled monthly precipitation using the four GCMs as inputs.

NameIDObservedCNRMCSIROECHOGHADCMMMEDiff (%)

Han River10−1.91−2.08−2.00−2.19−1.98−2.068.09
Anseong Stream11−1.92−2.09−2.01−2.21−1.95−2.077.75
West of Han River12−1.89−2.11−2.02−2.20−1.98−2.089.84
East of Han River13−1.87−2.11−1.99−2.14−2.03−2.0710.63
Nakdong River20−1.98−2.04−1.98−2.22−2.09−2.085.27
East of Nakdong River24−1.96−2.09−1.95−2.15−2.15−2.096.40
South of Nakdong River25−1.98−2.06−1.99−2.19−2.09−2.085.07
Hyeongsan River21−2.01−2.08−1.96−2.18−2.16−2.104.30
Taehwa River22−2.03−2.08−1.95−2.16−2.18−2.093.22
Hoeya/Sooyeong23−2.01−2.08−1.97−2.18−2.17−2.104.38
Geum River30−1.90−1.98−1.97−2.24−2.00−2.057.85
Sapgyo Stream31−1.90−2.05−2.02−2.22−1.95−2.068.56
West of Geum River32−1.90−2.05−2.03−2.23−1.96−2.079.06
Mangyeong, Dongjin33−1.93−1.96−1.95−2.28−1.99−2.046.14
Seomjin River40−1.95−1.93−1.98−2.22−2.03−2.044.91
South of Seomjin River41−1.95−2.00−2.00−2.16−2.06−2.055.11
Yeongsan River50−1.97−1.92−1.98−2.20−2.00−2.033.01
Tamjin River51−1.99−1.98−2.01−2.15−2.05−2.053.07
South of Yeongsan River52−2.01−1.98−2.00−2.15−2.04−2.041.79
West of Yeongsan River53−1.99−1.95−1.97−2.21−1.99−2.032.13