Table 6: Changes in the severity of drought in severe dry stages with three-month SPI less than −1.5 for past and future climate change projections. Observed severity of drought for the period 1976–2010 and projected change in severity of drought by each GCM and MME average for the period 2011–2099 for the climate change scenario. Difference is a percentage change in severity of drought between past and future periods, and positive value indicates increasing trend and vice versa. Note that the SPI series is calculated from a downscaled monthly precipitation using the four GCMs as inputs.

Name ID Observed CNRM CSIRO ECHOG HADCM MME Diff (%) Han River 10 −1.91 −2.08 −2.00 −2.19 −1.98 −2.06 8.09 Anseong Stream 11 −1.92 −2.09 −2.01 −2.21 −1.95 −2.07 7.75 West of Han River 12 −1.89 −2.11 −2.02 −2.20 −1.98 −2.08 9.84 East of Han River 13 −1.87 −2.11 −1.99 −2.14 −2.03 −2.07 10.63 Nakdong River 20 −1.98 −2.04 −1.98 −2.22 −2.09 −2.08 5.27 East of Nakdong River 24 −1.96 −2.09 −1.95 −2.15 −2.15 −2.09 6.40 South of Nakdong River 25 −1.98 −2.06 −1.99 −2.19 −2.09 −2.08 5.07 Hyeongsan River 21 −2.01 −2.08 −1.96 −2.18 −2.16 −2.10 4.30 Taehwa River 22 −2.03 −2.08 −1.95 −2.16 −2.18 −2.09 3.22 Hoeya/Sooyeong 23 −2.01 −2.08 −1.97 −2.18 −2.17 −2.10 4.38 Geum River 30 −1.90 −1.98 −1.97 −2.24 −2.00 −2.05 7.85 Sapgyo Stream 31 −1.90 −2.05 −2.02 −2.22 −1.95 −2.06 8.56 West of Geum River 32 −1.90 −2.05 −2.03 −2.23 −1.96 −2.07 9.06 Mangyeong, Dongjin 33 −1.93 −1.96 −1.95 −2.28 −1.99 −2.04 6.14 Seomjin River 40 −1.95 −1.93 −1.98 −2.22 −2.03 −2.04 4.91 South of Seomjin River 41 −1.95 −2.00 −2.00 −2.16 −2.06 −2.05 5.11 Yeongsan River 50 −1.97 −1.92 −1.98 −2.20 −2.00 −2.03 3.01 Tamjin River 51 −1.99 −1.98 −2.01 −2.15 −2.05 −2.05 3.07 South of Yeongsan River 52 −2.01 −1.98 −2.00 −2.15 −2.04 −2.04 1.79 West of Yeongsan River 53 −1.99 −1.95 −1.97 −2.21 −1.99 −2.03 2.13