Advances in Meteorology / 2016 / Article / Tab 1 / Research Article
A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook Table 1 Results of drought forecasting in Wonju station during September 2008 to December 2009 (
the drought conditions (observed SPI is under zero) are in italic font in the table).
Date (year/month) Gaussian distribution Confidence intervals Drought occurrence probability Observed SPI 2.5 (%) 97.5 (%) 2008/03 −1.05 1.09 −3.18 1.08 0.83 0.02 2008/04 −0.31 1.02 −2.30 1.68 0.62 −0.53 2008/05 −0.39 1.06 −2.46 1.68 0.64 −0.33 2008/06 −0.75 1.02 −2.75 1.26 0.77 −0.92 2008/07 −0.85 0.95 −2.72 1.02 0.81 −0.06 2008/08 −0.20 1.00 −2.17 1.77 0.58 −0.69 2008/09 −0.68 0.97 −2.59 1.23 0.76 −0.68 2008/10 −1.31 0.99 −3.25 0.63 0.91 −1.09 2008/11 −1.40 1.07 −3.49 0.69 0.91 −0.99 2008/12 −1.82 1.07 −3.92 0.27 0.96 −1.16 2009/01 −1.35 1.05 −3.41 0.71 0.90 −1.22 2009/02 −1.04 1.02 −3.04 0.97 0.84 0.03 2009/03 −0.52 0.97 −2.43 1.39 0.70 0.10 2009/04 0.15 0.92 −1.65 1.94 0.44 −0.49 2009/05 −0.55 1.03 −2.56 1.47 0.70 −0.09 2009/06 −0.30 1.08 −2.42 1.83 0.61 −0.64 2009/07 −0.53 1.13 −2.74 1.68 0.68 1.19 2009/08 1.24 0.98 −0.68 3.15 0.10 0.65 2009/09 1.39 0.98 −0.54 3.32 0.08 0.39 2009/10 −0.24 0.98 −2.15 1.68 0.60 −0.74 2009/11 −0.67 1.13 −2.88 1.54 0.72 −0.35 2009/12 0.30 0.99 −1.63 2.24 0.38 0.96