A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook

Table 1

Results of drought forecasting in Wonju station during September 2008 to December 2009 (the drought conditions (observed SPI is under zero) are in italic font in the table).

Date (year/month)	Gaussian distribution		Confidence intervals		Drought occurrence probability	Observed SPI
			2.5 (%)	97.5 (%)
2008/03	−1.05	1.09	−3.18	1.08	0.83	0.02
2008/04	−0.31	1.02	−2.30	1.68	0.62	−0.53
2008/05	−0.39	1.06	−2.46	1.68	0.64	−0.33
2008/06	−0.75	1.02	−2.75	1.26	0.77	−0.92
2008/07	−0.85	0.95	−2.72	1.02	0.81	−0.06
2008/08	−0.20	1.00	−2.17	1.77	0.58	−0.69
2008/09	−0.68	0.97	−2.59	1.23	0.76	−0.68
2008/10	−1.31	0.99	−3.25	0.63	0.91	−1.09
2008/11	−1.40	1.07	−3.49	0.69	0.91	−0.99
2008/12	−1.82	1.07	−3.92	0.27	0.96	−1.16
2009/01	−1.35	1.05	−3.41	0.71	0.90	−1.22
2009/02	−1.04	1.02	−3.04	0.97	0.84	0.03
2009/03	−0.52	0.97	−2.43	1.39	0.70	0.10
2009/04	0.15	0.92	−1.65	1.94	0.44	−0.49
2009/05	−0.55	1.03	−2.56	1.47	0.70	−0.09
2009/06	−0.30	1.08	−2.42	1.83	0.61	−0.64
2009/07	−0.53	1.13	−2.74	1.68	0.68	1.19
2009/08	1.24	0.98	−0.68	3.15	0.10	0.65
2009/09	1.39	0.98	−0.54	3.32	0.08	0.39
2009/10	−0.24	0.98	−2.15	1.68	0.60	−0.74
2009/11	−0.67	1.13	−2.88	1.54	0.72	−0.35
2009/12	0.30	0.99	−1.63	2.24	0.38	0.96