Research Article

A New Weighting Scheme in Weighted Markov Model for Predicting the Probability of Drought Episodes

Table 3

Predicted probabilities of next drought classes at Astor station.

Initial monthClassStepsWeightsEDEWMDMWNNSDSW

JunNNP70.002900.000000.050200.067000.136400.684200.016700.04550
JulyNNP60.072500.002400.066800.064400.131300.668300.019100.04770
AugNNP50.008100.002400.059500.066700.128600.678600.014300.05000
SepNNP40.040000.000000.057000.092600.118800.665100.019000.04750
OctNNP30.037100.002400.064000.071100.113700.696700.016600.03550
NovNNP20.049800.002400.059100.087500.106400.692700.018900.03310
DecNNP10.789500.002400.037700.068400.113200.724100.018900.03540
0.002300.042900.070100.114600.714600.018800.03680