The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Oat Lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland

Table 2

Monthly average precipitation rate anomaly (%) using baseline 1981–2010 in June and July.

Month	Region	Projection	2020–2049				2050–2079
			RCP 2.6	RCP 4.5	RCP 6	RCP 8.5	RCP 2.6	RCP 4.5	RCP 6	RCP 8.5
June	South England	Probabilistic	−26% to +17%	−24% to +19%	−24% to +19%	−27% to +19%	−37% to +3%	−42% to 2%	−43% to +2%	−50% to +4%
		Regional				−50% to +50%				−70% to +20%
		Global				−40% to +40%				−70% to +20%
	West England	Probabilistic	−31% to +22%	−30% to +22%	−29% to +22%	−32% to +21%	−38% to +4%	−43% to +3%	−44% to +3%	−51% to +4%
		Regional				−50% to +30%				−70% to +10%
		Global				−40% to +40%				−70% to +20%
	Scotland	Probabilistic	−18% to +22%	−17% to +22%	−17% to +23%	−17% to +22%	−25% to +14%	−27% to +14%	−27% to +14%	−29% to +14%
		Regional				−30% to +60%				−40% to +30%
		Global				−40% to +40%				−50% to +30%
	Ireland	Regional				−50% to +20%				−70% to 0%
		Global				−40% to +30%				−60% to +20%
July	South England	Probabilistic	−43% to +16%	−44% to +16%	−44% to +17%	−47% to +14%	−44% to +12%	−49% to +9%	−49% to 10%	−56% to +7%
		Regional				−40% to +50%				−60% to +10%
		Global				−50% to +50%				−70% to +30%
	West England	Probabilistic	−27% to +19%	−29% to +19%	−28% to +19%	−31% to +18%	−37% to +9%	−41% to +8%	−40% to +8%	−47% to +5%
		Regional				−40% to +20%				−60% to +10%
		Global				−30% to +50%				−60% to +30%
	Scotland	Probabilistic	−28% to +22%	−28% to +22%	−28% to +22%	−30% to +21%	−38% to +15%	−40% to +17%	−40% to +17%	−47% to +19%
		Regional				−40% to +30%				−50% to +10%
		Global				−30% to +40%				−50% to +20%
	Ireland	Regional				−50% to +30%				−60% to −10%
		Global				−40% to +40%				−60% to +40%