Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter

<div>Relationship chart between the ensemble spread and solar GHI’s forecasting error for the intraday prediction by using model WRF only <span class="nowrap"><svg height="12.9866pt" id="M114" style="vertical-align:-4.3507pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 22.0342 12.9866" width="22.0342pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.22,3.132)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.768,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.925,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g></svg>,</span> based on WRF and method Kalman filter <svg height="12.9866pt" id="M115" style="vertical-align:-4.3507pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 51.1894 12.9866" width="51.1894pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M962 650H795L470 145L347 650H176L170 622C268 613 275 606 244 503L190 322C150 188 132 126 118 91C102 50 80 33 18 28L12 0H245L251 28C175 35 170 48 174 93C177 128 191 180 220 284L292 542H294C331 392 383 150 409 4H432L774 555H776L714 137C700 40 694 34 612 28L606 0H868L874 28C793 34 784 37 797 137L849 533C859 612 863 616 956 622L962 650Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,12.22,3.132)"><path d="M250 606C250 634 233 656 203 656C168 656 146 618 146 593C146 564 169 545 192 545C227 545 250 573 250 606ZM227 95L212 119C187 98 152 71 135 71C129 71 128 78 134 102L207 373C219 418 217 451 194 451C165 451 92 411 30 351L44 326C77 353 106 371 114 371C124 371 121 357 117 341L55 97C32 5 46 -12 70 -12C108 -12 191 51 227 95Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,14.768,3.132)"><path d="M98 134C72 134 46 117 46 90C46 73 55 65 60 64C95 55 124 32 124 -4C124 -42 95 -68 44 -89L57 -123C122 -104 194 -60 194 22C194 94 136 134 98 134Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,16.925,3.132)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,24.794,0)"><path d="M535 230V280H52V230H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,35.331,0)"><path d="M667 0V28C619 34 599 43 546 100C496 154 386 277 311 372C378 440 449 512 488 547C551 605 575 615 650 622V650H410V622L433 619C478 614 479 604 449 568C404 513 337 443 282 390C254 364 234 350 212 345V520C212 609 222 616 299 622V650H41V622C120 616 128 611 128 520V128C128 41 120 34 44 28V0H304V28C221 34 212 41 212 128V318C229 321 242 318 266 291C355 185 436 87 514 0H667Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,44.08,0)"><path d="M493 503C489 551 484 614 483 650H43V622C120 616 128 611 128 525V126C128 40 120 34 40 28V0H312V28C221 34 213 40 213 126V307H316C407 307 412 296 424 227H453V420H424C412 355 407 346 316 346H213V584C213 613 216 616 246 616H322C398 616 419 607 436 579C449 559 455 539 464 499L493 503Z"></path></g></svg> during the period from September 1 to November 30 in 2013.</div>

Advances in Meteorology

fig8

Figure 8

Figure 8: Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter 