Solar GHI Ensemble Prediction Based on a Meteorological Model and Method Kalman Filter

Table 3

Rates of empirical coverage for the intraday solar GHI prediction with regard to the prediction interval of the ensemble prediction during the period from December 1 to 10^th 2013.

Rate of nominal coverage for prediction interval (%)	Forecasting method and member	Rate of empirical coverage for prediction interval [%]
		12/01	12/02	12/03	12/04	12/05	12/06	12/07	12/08	12/09	12/10	Ave
50		31.6	10.5	31.6	73.7	26.3	26.3	21.1	26.3	36.8	63.2	34.7
		57.9	52.6	42.1	57.9	57.9	47.4	63.1	57.9	36.8	68.4	54.2
80		63.2	26.3	52.6	89.5	36.8	57.9	36.8	36.8	73.7	94.7	56.8
		73.7	78.9	78.9	89.5	84.2	68.4	84.2	89.5	63.1	94.7	80.5
90		73.7	42.1	57.9	94.7	47.4	57.9	57.9	47.4	89.5	94.7	66.3
		84.2	78.9	94.7	94.7	94.7	89.5	94.7	94.7	78.9	94.7	90.0
95		84.2	47.4	63.2	94.7	52.6	94.7	78.9	47.4	89.5	94.7	74.7
		94.7	84.2	94.7	94.7	94.7	94.7	94.7	94.7	89.5	94.7	93.2