Emergency Surgery Mortality (ESM) Score to Predict Mortality and Improve Patient Care in Emergency Surgery
Table 3
Relevant risk factors according to univariate analysis.
Parameter
AUC
Crude odds ratio
value
ASA class 5
0.69
14.5
<0.001
On endotracheal tube
0.62
2.8
<0.001
Heart rate >100 beats/min
0.69
5.4
<0.001
Systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg
0.70
16.1
<0.001
Type of surgery
General surgery
0.57
1.8
0.010
Comorbidity
Renal
0.60
2.2
<0.001
Coagulopathy
0.65
71.9
<0.001
Arrhythmia
0.57
2.1
0.004
Electrolyte imbalance
0.62
3.2
<0.001
Postcardiac arrest
0.65
10.7
<0.001
CPR preoperative
0.63
45.3
<0.001
CPR intraoperative
0.681
225.4
<0.001
Operating room set >2 h
0.45
0.56
0.008
Investigation
White blood count >12 × 103/μL
0.58
2.0
0.014
Platelet count <8 × 103/μL
0.55
2.7
0.005
Creatinine >2.3 mg/dL
0.59
2.1
0.002
Bicarbonate <15 mEq/L
0.70
12.4
<0.001
Base excess >−7 mEq/L
0.71
6.3
<0.001
Lactate >5 mmol/L
0.75
9.1
<0.001
Albumin <2.5 g/dL
0.59
2.1
0.032
Bilirubin >1 mg/dL
0.65
4.0
0.019
PT >14 sec
0.63
3.0
<0.001
INR >1.5
0.66
4.4
<0.001
PTT >33 sec
0.60
2.2
0.005
AST >55 unit/L
0.64
3.3
0.017
Drug
Midazolam
0.62
3.0
<0.001
Dopamine/dobutamine
0.69
7.5
<0.001
Adrenaline
0.79
42.4
<0.001
Noradrenaline
0.66
4.3
<0.001
Fluid intake
Crystalloid >1,000 mL
0.64
3.6
<0.001
Colloid >500 mL
0.62
3.1
<0.001
PRC >2 units
0.65
4.5
<0.001
FFP >2 units
0.65
4.5
<0.001
Platelets >4 units
0.60
3.6
<0.001
AUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; ASA: American Society of Anesthesiologists; CPR: cardiopulmonary resuscitation; PT: prothrombin time; INR: international normalized ratio; PTT: partial thromboplastin time; AST: aspartate aminotransferase; PRC: pack red cell; FFP: fresh frozen plasma.
