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AIDS Research and Treatment
Volume 2011, Article ID 749041, 8 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/749041
Research Article

Utilization Patterns and Projected Demand of Antiretroviral Drugs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

1Department of HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
2AIDS Financing and Economics Division, UNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
3Futures Institute, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA

Received 16 June 2010; Revised 11 November 2010; Accepted 8 December 2010

Academic Editor: Robin Wood

Copyright © 2011 Françoise Renaud-Théry et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Background. The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings has greatly increased demand for antiretroviral medicines and raised the importance of good forward planning, especially in the context of the new 2010 WHO treatment guidelines. Methods. Forecasting of the number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2010 to 2012 was produced using three approaches: linear projection, country-set targets, and a restricted scenario. Two additional scenarios were then used to project the demand for various antiretroviral medicines under a fast and slower phase-out of stavudine. Results. We projected that between 7.1 million and 8.4 million people would be receiving ART by the end of 2012. Of these, 6.6% will be on second-line therapy. High variation in forecast includes reductions in the demand for d4T and d4T increases in the demand for tenofovir, emtricitabine followed by efavirenz, ritonavir, zidovudine and lopinavir; lamivudine, atazanavir, and nevirapine. Conclusion. Despite the global economic crisis and in response to the revised treatment guidelines, our model forecasts an increasing and shifting demand for antiretrovirals in resource-limited settings not only to provide treatment to new patients, but also to those switching to less toxic regimens.