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BioMed Research International
Volume 2014, Article ID 858936, 11 pages
Research Article

Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030

1Department of Infectious Diseases, Rostov State Medical University, Nakhichevanskiy Pereulok 29, Rostov-na-Donu 344022, Russia
2Faculty of Geography, Saint Petersburg State University, Universitetskaya Nab. 7-9, Saint Petersburg 199034, Russia
3Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, C/del Licenciado Méndez Nieto s/n, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
4Department of Statistics, University of Salamanca, C/Alfonso X el Sabio S/N, 37007 Salamanca, Spain

Received 27 January 2014; Accepted 23 May 2014; Published 19 June 2014

Academic Editor: Nongyao Sawangjaroen

Copyright © 2014 Vladimir Kartashev et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64°N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.