Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030
Table 1
Estimated area, population exposure, and transmission of Dirofilaria in the former USSR.
Annual predicted generations of Dirofilaria intervals
1981–1990
1991–2000
2001–2011
2030
Area (×1000 km2)
Population exposure (millions)
PYE (millions)
Area (×1000 km2)
Population exposure (millions)
PYE (millions)
Area (×1000 km2)
Population exposure (millions)
PYE (millions)
Area (×1000 km2)
Population exposure(millions)
PYE (millions)
0
14908
77.15
0
14467 (−3%)
62.83 (−18.6%)
0 (0%)
13740 (−5%)
46.54 (−25.9%)
0 (0%)
12115 (−11.8%)
21.49 (−53.8%)
0 (0%)
0–2
2936
92.45
138.68
3321 (13.1%)
103.69 (12.2%)
155.54 (12.2%)
3641 (9.6%)
100.70 (−2.9%)
151.05 (−2.9%)
4388 (20.5%)
103.13 (2.4%)
154.70 (2.4%)
2–6
2498
62.19
248.76
2534 (1.4%)
65.27 (5%)
261.08 (5%)
2619 (1.6%)
76.69 (17.5%)
306.76 (17.5%)
3153 (20.4%)
96.27 (25.5%)
385.08 (25.5%)
6–12
1735
38.98
350.82
1733 (−0.1%)
38.98 (0%)
350.82 (0%)
1918 (10.7%)
40.79 (40.6%)
367.11 (40.6%)
2068 (7.8%)
41.68 (2.2%)
375.12 (2.2%)
>12
455
11.87
142.44
477 (4.8%)
11.87 (0%)
142.44 (0%)
614 (28.72%)
17.91 (50.9%)
214.92 (50.9%)
808 (31.6%)
20.05 (11.9%)
240.6 (11.9%)
Total affected area
7624
205.48
880.70
8065 (5.8%)
219.80 (7%)
909.88 (3.3%)
8792 (9%)
236.09 (7.4%)
1039.84 (14.3%)
10417 (18.5%)
261.49 (10.8%)
1155.5 (11.1%)
PYE: person-year of exposure. % increase shown in parentheses.
