A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness

<table class="table-group" id="tab2"><tr><td><table class="table"><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr class="thead"><td align="left"><span style="width: 11.5092ptpx;"><svg height="9.21094pt" id="M164" style="vertical-align:-0.2129908pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.99795 11.5092 9.21094" width="11.5092pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M822 650H589L583 622C660 617 677 607 674 561C672 534 664 481 647 390L600 137H596L273 650H126L120 622C176 620 194 615 207 594C221 571 225 557 214 504L161 257C141 166 129 112 121 85C108 42 83 30 29 28L23 0H260L266 28C193 33 173 42 176 89C178 122 186 172 202 255L256 527H259L583 -8H612L690 390C708 481 720 535 728 558C744 603 756 619 816 622L822 650Z" id="g113-79"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="839" vert-adv-y="839"></glyph.data></g></svg></span></td><td align="center"><span style="width: 13.6922ptpx;"><svg height="15.8527pt" id="M165" style="vertical-align:-3.4278pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -12.4249 13.6922 15.8527" width="13.6922pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,1.543,-3.019)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z" id="g119-17"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="470" vert-adv-y="470"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M610 18C585 26 567 34 540 68C517 97 499 128 476 171C452 215 425 276 413 304C496 332 570 394 570 494C570 555 545 595 509 619S419 650 364 650H139L133 622C216 615 219 612 203 527L129 132C112 40 105 36 23 28L17 0H279L285 28C199 34 194 40 211 132L239 284H284C320 284 334 275 351 236C374 182 394 140 420 93C459 23 495 -1 592 -8H600L610 18ZM480 485C480 424 449 372 403 342C374 323 338 316 293 316H245L291 562C296 589 301 601 311 608S337 618 358 618C432 618 480 575 480 485Z" id="g113-83"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="627" vert-adv-y="627"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0095,0,0,-0.0095,8.427,3.264)"><path d="M245 635C92 635 37 457 37 312C37 149 91 -12 244 -12C395 -12 449 166 449 312C449 469 395 635 245 635ZM243 598C332 598 358 454 358 312C358 173 334 26 245 26C158 26 128 174 128 313S152 598 243 598Z" id="g50-49"></path><glyph.data ascent="3443" descent="-2856" horiz-adv-x="487" vert-adv-y="487"></glyph.data></g></svg></span></td><td align="center"> Week of outbreak</td><td align="center"><span style="width: 8.00062ptpx;"><svg height="16.6768pt" id="M166" style="vertical-align:-3.572pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -13.1048 8.00062 16.6768" width="8.00062pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,2.455,-3.699)"><path d="M470 557C393 591 314 624 246 666H224C156 624 76 591 0 557L12 532C86 550 163 573 235 596C309 572 384 550 458 532L470 557Z" id="g119-17"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="470" vert-adv-y="470"></glyph.data></g><g transform="matrix(.0135,0,0,-0.0135,0,0)"><path d="M558 587C558 666 497 712 432 712C379 712 330 691 284 650C212 586 178 508 148 348L71 -65C49 -185 35 -229 23 -235L27 -261C49 -259 101 -251 124 -224C131 -216 138 -178 159 -24C171 66 197 200 227 356C264 550 295 668 393 668C443 668 479 632 479 575C479 516 446 458 383 418C361 404 344 398 318 397L296 350C395 338 460 281 460 192C460 110 411 40 300 40C258 40 215 55 192 69L181 51C191 18 222 -16 266 -16C308 -16 351 1 397 26C471 67 545 142 545 221C545 315 486 365 401 395C469 437 558 498 558 587Z" id="g113-224"></path><glyph.data ascent="3473" descent="-2876" horiz-adv-x="581" vert-adv-y="581"></glyph.data></g></svg></span></td></tr><tr><td class="thead-hr" colspan="4"><hr/></td></tr><tr><td align="left">5000 </td><td align="center"> 1.23</td><td align="center"> 2</td><td align="center"> 0.17</td></tr><tr><td align="left">10000 </td><td align="center"> 1.36</td><td align="center"> 7</td><td align="center"> 0.19</td></tr><tr><td align="left">500000 </td><td align="center"> 1.91</td><td align="center"> 8</td><td align="center"> 0.27</td></tr><tr><td align="left">1000000</td><td align="center"> 1.35</td><td align="center"> 14</td><td align="center"> 0.19</td></tr><tr class="table-tr"><td colspan="4"><hr class="tbody-hr"/></td></tr></table></td></tr></table>

Estimates obtained for the detected outbreak.

BioMed Research International

tab2

Table 2

Table 2: A Bayesian Outbreak Detection Method for Influenza-Like Illness 