High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Blood Urea Nitrogen, and Serum Creatinine Can Predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Figure 2

ROC curves for various predictors for severe acute pancreatitis. The AUCs for BMI at admission, hematocrit at admission, HDL-C at admission, BUN at admission, BUN after 24 hrs of admission, Scr at admission, Scr after 24 hrs of admission, BISAP score, and LR model for the prediction of SAP were 0.56 ± 0.04, 0.60 ± 0.04, 0.76 ± 0.04, 0.75 ± 0.04, 0.79 ± 0.04, 0.67 ± 0.05, 0.76 ± 0.04, 0.82 ± 0.03, and 0.84 ± 0.03, respectively. The ideal AUC was 1.00. The reference line represents AUC of 0.50, based on chance alone. ROC curve = receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMI = Body Mass Index; HDL-C = High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol; BUN = Blood Urea Nitrogen; Scr = serum creatinine; BISAP = Bedside Index for Severity in Acute pancreatitis; LR model = logistic regression model.