A Forecasting Model for Feed Grain Demand Based on Combined Dynamic Model

Table 1

Statistical data of various impact factors.

Year	Meat		Egg		Milk		Aquatic product		Population (ten thousand people)		Per capita income (yuan)		Urbanization level (%)
	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural
1981	20.5	9.4	5.2	1.3	4.1	0.7	7.3	1.3	20171	79901	500.4	223.4	14.2
1982	21	9.9	5.9	1.4	4.5	0.7	7.7	1.3	21480	80174	535.3	270.1	14.4
1983	22.5	10.8	6.9	1.6	4.6	0.8	8.1	1.6	22274	80734	564.6	309.8	14.6
1984	22.8	11.5	7.6	1.8	5.2	0.8	7.8	1.7	24017	80340	652.1	355.3	14.7
1985	24	12	8.8	2.1	6.4	0.8	7.8	1.6	25094	80757	739.1	397.6	14.8
1986	25.3	12.9	7.1	2.1	4.7	1.4	8.2	1.9	26366	81141	900.9	423.8	15
1987	25.4	12.9	6.6	2.3	5.5	1.1	7.9	2	27674	81626	1002.1	462.6	15.1
1988	23.7	12	6.9	2.3	5.1	1.1	7.1	1.9	28661	82365	1180.2	544.9	15.3
1989	23.9	12.3	7.1	2.4	4.2	1	7.6	2.1	29540	83164	1373.9	601.5	15.4
1990	25.2	12.6	7.3	2.4	4.6	1.1	7.7	2.1	30195	84138	1510.2	686.3	15.5
1991	26.6	13.5	8.3	2.7	4.7	1.3	8	2.2	31203	84620	1700.6	708.6	15.9
1992	26.5	13.3	9.5	2.9	5.5	1.5	8.2	2.3	32175	84996	2026.6	784	16.2
1993	26	13.3	8.9	2.9	5.4	0.9	8	2.8	33173	85344	2577.4	921.6	16.5
1994	24.3	12.6	9.7	3	5.3	0.7	8.5	3	34169	85681	3496.2	1221	16.8
1995	23.6	13.1	9.7	3.2	4.6	0.6	9.2	3.4	35174	85947	4283	1577.7	17.2
1996	25.8	14.8	9.6	3.4	4.8	0.8	9.25	3.7	37304	85085	4838.9	1926.1	18.4
1997	25.5	15.1	11.1	4.1	5.1	1	9.3	3.8	39449	84177	5160.3	2090.1	19.6
1998	25.5	15.5	10.2	4.1	6.2	0.9	9.84	3.7	41608	83153	5425.1	2162	20.8
1999	26.7	16.4	10.9	4.3	7.9	1	10.3	3.8	43748	82038	5854	2210.3	22
2000	25.4	18.3	11.2	4.8	9.9	1.1	11.7	3.9	45906	80837	6280	2253.4	23.2
2001	26.5	18.2	10.4	4.7	11.9	1.2	10.33	4.1	48064	79563	6859.6	2366.4	24.4
2002	32.5	18.6	10.6	4.7	15.7	1.2	13.2	4.4	50212	78241	7702.8	2475.6	25.8
2003	32.9	19.7	11.2	4.8	18.6	1.7	13.4	4.7	52376	76851	8472.2	2622.2	27.2
2004	29.3	19.2	10.4	4.6	18.8	2	12.5	4.5	54283	75705	9421.6	2936.4	28.9
2005	32.9	22.4	10.4	4.7	17.9	2.9	12.6	4.9	56212	74544	10493	3254.9	30.7
2006	32.1	22.3	10.4	5	18.3	3.1	13	5	58288	73160	11759.5	3587	32.5
2007	31.8	20.5	10.3	4.7	17.8	3.5	14.2	5.4	60633	71496	13785.8	4140.4	34.3
2008	31.2	20.2	10.7	5.4	15.2	3.4	11.9	5.2	62403	70399	15780.8	4760.6	36
2009	34.7	21.5	10.6	5.3	14.9	3.6	12.2	5.3	64512	68938	17174.7	5153.2	37.7
2010	34.7	22.2	10	5.1	14	3.6	15.2	5.2	66978	67113	19109.4	5919	38.8
2011	35.2	23.3	10.1	5.4	13.7	5.2	14.6	5.4	69079	65656	21809.8	6977.3	40.6
2012	35.7	23.5	10.5	5.9	14	5.3	15.2	5.4	71182	64222	24564.7	7916.6	42.4

Note: () unit: per capita consumption in kilograms; () the data are from Rural China Statistical Yearbook.