Student Enrollment and Teacher Statistics Forecasting Based on Time-Series Analysis

Table 3

Performance comparison of different forecasting models for student enrollment dataset.

Number of students		Criteria	ARIMA	ETS	TBATS	GRIDSVR	PSOSVR	WOASVR
Primary school	Public	MAPE (%)	3.57	12.89	3.11	6.65	1.61	0.86
		RMSE	47989.51	159243.65	40320.54	86053.33	21606.28	12787.62
	Private	MAPE (%)	3.12	7.16	7.95	6.06	1.46	1.07
		RMSE	1243.26	2626.75	3439.16	2761.55	739.57	528.48
Secondary school	Public	MAPE (%)	6.03	15.59	16.53	8.74	6.00	5.57
		RMSE	40912.00	98097.44	116066.74	74626.56	40615.21	39029.75
	Private	MAPE (%)	2.14	3.40	3.72	3.61	2.46	1.85
		RMSE	2233.16	3421.01	4051.42	3522.10	2418.49	2049.95
High school	Public	MAPE (%)	2.15	2.55	2.03	4.80	1.95	1.71
		RMSE	12232.91	14061.67	11797.81	22763.48	12199.88	11762.71
	Private	MAPE (%)	7.68	7.51	7.55	7.56	6.75	4.16
		RMSE	33472.75	30483.37	32005.37	32036.26	30279.43	17782.32
University	Public	MAPE (%)	0.24	0.89	0.91	1.61	0.22	0.2
		RMSE	1181.90	4188.08	4933.25	7319.07	1208.03	1105.6
	Private	MAPE (%)	5.06	3.56	9.43	4.87	3.80	1.36
		RMSE	50997.54	39093.13	95690.97	56050.40	48495.19	15621.16
Average	Public	MAPE (%)	3.00	7.98	5.65	5.45	2.45	2.09
		RMSE	25579.08	68897.71	43279.59	47690.61	18907.35	16171.42
	Private	MAPE (%)	4.50	5.41	7.16	5.53	3.62	2.11
		RMSE	21986.68	18906.07	33796.73	23592.58	20483.17	8995.48

ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average; ETS, exponential smoothing; TBATS, Trigonometric Seasonal Box–Cox Transformation with ARMA residuals Trend and Seasonal Components; GRIDSVR, grid search support vector regression; PSOSVR, particle swarm optimization support vector regression; WOASVR, whale optimization algorithm support vector regression; boldface, the best values in each row.