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Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology
Volume 25, Issue 7, Pages 359-364
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/454727
Original Article

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Accurately Predicts 90-Day Liver Transplant Wait-List Mortality in Atlantic Canada

Paul Douglas Renfrew,1,2 Hude Quan,2 Christopher James Doig,2 Elijah Dixon,2 and Michele Molinari1

1Atlantic Multi-Organ Transplant Program, Department of Surgery, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
2Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Received 25 November 2010; Accepted 20 December 2010

Copyright © 2011 Hindawi Publishing Corporation. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine the generalizability of the predictions for 90-day mortality generated by Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the serum sodium augmented MELD (MELDNa) to Atlantic Canadian adults with end-stage liver disease awaiting liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS: The predictive accuracy of the MELD and the MELDNa was evaluated by measurement of the discrimination and calibration of the respective models’ estimates for the occurrence of 90-day mortality in a consecutive cohort of LT candidates accrued over a five-year period. Accuracy of discrimination was measured by the area under the ROC curves. Calibration accuracy was evaluated by comparing the observed and model-estimated incidences of 90-day wait-list failure for the total cohort and within quantiles of risk.

RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for the MELD was 0.887 (95% CI 0.705 to 0.978) – consistent with very good accuracy of discrimination. The area under the ROC curve for the MELDNa was 0.848 (95% CI 0.681 to 0.965). The observed incidence of 90-day wait-list mortality in the validation cohort was 7.9%, which was not significantly different from the MELD estimate of 6.6% (95% CI 4.9% to 8.4%; P=0.177) or the MELDNa estimate of 5.8% (95% CI 3.5% to 8.0%; P=0.065). Global goodness-of-fit testing found no evidence of significant lack of fit for either model (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 [df=3] for MELD 2.941, P=0.401; for MELDNa 2.895, P=0.414).

CONCLUSION: Both the MELD and the MELDNa accurately predicted the occurrence of 90-day wait-list mortality in the study cohort and, therefore, are generalizable to Atlantic Canadians with end-stage liver disease awaiting LT.