Accuracy of Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISAs) in Detecting Antibodies against Mycobacterium leprae in Leprosy Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Figure 4

Fagan’s nomogram and the posttest probabilities. Fagan’s nomogram was built with a prevalence of 30% for household contacts of leprosy patients in an endemic area. If a patient tests positive, the posttest probability that they truly have leprosy would be (a) PGL-I ELISA: 98% for group MB and 88% for group PB; (b) ND-O-BSA ELISA: 98% for group MB and 97% for group PB; and (c) LID-1 ELISA: 90% for group MB and 78% for group PB (solid red line). On the contrary, if this patient tests negative, the posttest probability of having the disease and not being detected would be (a) PGL-I ELISA: 9% for group MB and 23% for group PB; (b) ND-O-BSA ELISA: 3% for group MB and 16% for group PB; and (c) LID-1 ELISA: 8% for group MB and 26% for group PB (dotted blue line).

(a)

(b)

(c)