Epidemic Situation of Brucellosis in Jinzhou City of China and Prediction Using the ARIMA Model
Table 5
Comparison between actual and predicted monthly morbidity in 2014.
Month
Actual value
Predicted value
95% confidence limit
Error absolute value
Absolute percentage error
Jan
0.97
0.99
0.53–1.46
0.02
0.02
Feb
0.97
1.10
0.55–1.65
0.13
0.13
Mar
1.48
1.33
0.74–1.92
0.15
0.10
Apr
2.06
1.62
1.00–2.23
0.44
0.21
May
2.09
2.12
1.50–2.75
0.03
0.01
Jun
2.19
1.45
0.82–2.09
0.74
0.34
July
1.97
1.41
0.76–2.05
0.56
0.28
Aug
1.58
1.02
0.36–1.67
0.56
0.35
Sep
1.03
0.90
0.23–1.56
0.13
0.13
Oct
0.55
0.88
0.20–1.55
0.33
0.60
Nov
0.74
0.82
0.14–1.50
0.08
0.11
Dec
0.90
0.99
0.31–1.69
0.09
0.10
Note. The error absolute value is the D value between actual value and predicted value. The absolute percentage error is the ratio of error absolute value and actual value. MAPE is the mean value of absolute percentage error, and the value is 19.83%.
