Table 5: Comparison between actual and predicted monthly morbidity in 2014.

MonthActual valuePredicted value95% confidence limitError absolute valueAbsolute percentage error

Jan0.970.990.53–1.460.020.02
Feb0.971.100.55–1.650.130.13
Mar1.481.330.74–1.920.150.10
Apr2.061.621.00–2.230.440.21
May2.092.121.50–2.750.030.01
Jun2.191.450.82–2.090.740.34
July1.971.410.76–2.050.560.28
Aug1.581.020.36–1.670.560.35
Sep1.030.900.23–1.560.130.13
Oct0.550.880.20–1.550.330.60
Nov0.740.820.14–1.500.080.11
Dec0.900.990.31–1.690.090.10

Note. The error absolute value is the D value between actual value and predicted value. The absolute percentage error is the ratio of error absolute value and actual value. MAPE is the mean value of absolute percentage error, and the value is 19.83%.