Spatiotemporal Study of COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran, October-November 2020: Establishment of Early Warning System

Figure 1

(a) SARMA₁₂ (3, 4) estimating the number of COVID-19 cases in Jahrom during February^18th–September^30th 2020; the green dashed line represents the number of observed COVID-19 cases during February^18th–September^30th 2020; the simple red line indicates SARMA₁₂ (3, 4) model estimating COVID-19 cases during February^18th–September^30th 2020. (b) SARMA₁₂ (3, 4) model predicting COVID-19 cases in Jahrom during October^1st-November^14th 2020; the green line represents the estimated COVID-19 cases during February^18th–September^30th 2020; the red line represents the predicted COVID-19 cases during October^1st-November^14th 2020 with its confidence interval. (c) Sample/model SARMA₁₂ (3, 4) auto correlation function (ACF) and (d) partial auto correlation function (PACF) for Jahrom during October^1st-November^14th 2020; the green correlations are derived from the sample and the red correlations are taken from the fitted model; two dashed horizontal lines are confidence bands; a model is considered good in case the sample and model correlations out of the bands overlap.

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