Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Table 4

Parameters from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for trauma, nontrauma, and pediatric visits (January, 2005–December, 2008).

Parameters	Coefficient	𝑇	𝑃 value
ARIMA model (1,0,2) for forecasting trauma visits
Mean maximum temperature	−6.2110	−1.545	0.131
Mean minimum temperature	6.8860	4.383	<0.001
Relative humidity	−0.5100	−0.360	0.721
Accumulated rainfall	0.0210	1.479	0.147
Stock index fluctuation	0.0990	5.026	<0.001
ARIMA model (1,0,2) for forecasting nontraumatic visits
Mean maximum temperature	0.1380	5.211	<0.001
Mean minimum temperature	−0.0120	−0.835	0.409
Relative humidity	0.0280	2.518	0.016
Accumulated rainfall	0.0001	0.281	0.780
Stock index fluctuation	0.0010	3.351	0.002
ARIMA model (0, 2, 1) for forecasting pediatric visits
Mean maximum temperature	0.1320	3.449	<0.001
Mean minimum temperature	−0.0065	−4.444	<0.001
Relative humidity	0.0040	2.552	0.015
Accumulated rainfall	0.0001	0.921	0.363
Stock index fluctuation	0.0001	1.606	0.116