Inference for Ecological Dynamical Systems: A Case Study of Two Endemic Diseases

<table>Measles and pertussis estimates of transmission (<svg height="16.6625" id="M179" style="vertical-align:-3.56265pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 10 16.6625" width="10" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,0,0,-.017,.062,12.163)"><path d="M558 587q0 -32 -14 -61t-40 -53.5t-48.5 -41t-54.5 -36.5q144 -51 144 -174q0 -55 -43.5 -108t-104.5 -87q-77 -42 -131 -42q-31 0 -54 20t-31 47l11 18q48 -29 108 -29q79 0 119.5 43t40.5 109t-44.5 107.5t-119.5 50.5l22 47q34 1 65 21q96 61 96 157q0 42 -24 67.5
t-62 25.5q-24 0 -43.5 -9t-35 -29.5t-27 -44t-22.5 -63t-19.5 -75.5t-18.5 -91q-57 -294 -68 -380q-26 -190 -35 -200q-26 -31 -97 -37l-4 26q19 9 48 170l77 413q23 121 52.5 187.5t83.5 114.5q70 62 148 62q51 0 88.5 -34t37.5 -91z" id="x1D6FD"></path></g>
</svg>) and infectious period (<svg height="16.512501" id="M180" style="vertical-align:-3.56265pt" version="1.1" viewbox="0 0 23.799999 16.512501" width="23.799999" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
<g transform="matrix(.017,0,0,-.017,.062,12.013)"><path d="M384 0h-275v27q67 5 81.5 18.5t14.5 68.5v385q0 38 -7.5 47.5t-40.5 10.5l-48 2v24q85 15 178 52v-521q0 -55 14.5 -68.5t82.5 -18.5v-27z" id="x31"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,0,0,-.017,8.222,12.013)"><path d="M368 703l-264 -866h-60l265 866h59z" id="x2F"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.017,0,0,-.017,15.225,12.013)"><path d="M478 372q0 -39 -31 -97t-61 -98t-78 -98q-45 -55 -73 -102q-13 -79 -13 -197q-11 -11 -43.5 -25.5t-53.5 -15.5l-15 17q5 35 26 101.5t47 123.5q8 72 -1.5 174.5t-37.5 178.5q-14 37 -29 37q-20 0 -67 -65l-25 21q37 60 73 90.5t63 30.5q47 0 72 -112q13 -56 17.5 -141.5
t0.5 -143.5h2q155 193 155 297q0 26 -12 47q-5 8 -5 15q0 16 12.5 27t29.5 11q21 0 34 -21t13 -55z" id="x1D6FE"></path></g>
</svg>) epidemic parameters for 60 UK cities.</table>

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

fig8

Figure 8

Figure 8: Inference for Ecological Dynamical Systems: A Case Study of Two Endemic Diseases 