Comparing Statistical Models to Predict Dengue Fever Notifications

Table 2

Parameters for the final models.

ARIMA model	Coefficient	95% confidence interval		P value
Constant (𝜇)	0.28	−3.86	4.41	0.896
AR 1 (𝜑1)	−0.10	−0.16	−0.04	0.001
AR 2 (𝜑2)	0.10	0.04	0.17	0.002
AR 3 (𝜑3)	0.23	0.17	0.29	<0.001
K-H model	Coefficient	95% credible interval
𝜓	25.1	18.4	32.3
𝛾0	3.3	1.9	3.6
𝛾1	−0.2	−0.3	0.3
𝛾2	−0.5	−0.7	−0.4
𝜉	1.0	1.0	1.0
𝐾	7.6	0.01	15.0
𝜆	1.3	0.7	2.0