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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume 2012 (2012), Article ID 803097, 10 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/803097
Research Article

Exploring Short-Term Responses to Changes in the Control Strategy for Chlamydia trachomatis

1Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
2School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol BS8 2PS, UK

Received 2 September 2011; Accepted 6 April 2012

Academic Editor: Yoram Louzoun

Copyright © 2012 James Clarke et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Chlamydia has a significant impact on public health provision in the developed world. Using pair approximation equations we investigate the efficacy of control programmes for chlamydia on short time scales that are relevant to policy makers. We use output from the model to estimate critical measures, namely, prevalence, incidence, and positivity in those screened and their partners. We combine these measures with a costing tool to estimate the economic impact of different public health strategies. Increasing screening coverage significantly increases the annual programme costs whereas an increase in tracing efficiency initially increases annual costs but over time reduces costs below baseline, with tracing accounting for around 10% of intervention costs. We found that partner positivity is insensitive to changes in prevalence due to screening, remaining at around 33%. Whether increases occur in screening or tracing levels, the cost per treated infection increases from the baseline because of reduced prevalence.