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Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume 2014, Article ID 627586, 12 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/627586
Research Article

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Dynamics of Rift Valley Fever

1School of CoCSE, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania
2Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda

Received 30 August 2013; Revised 20 January 2014; Accepted 3 February 2014; Published 30 March 2014

Academic Editor: Gabriel Turinici

Copyright © 2014 Saul C. Mpeshe et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

A deterministic SEIR model of rift valley fever (RVF) with climate change parameters was considered to compute the basic reproduction number and investigate the impact of temperature and precipitation on . To study the effect of model parameters to , sensitivity and elasticity analysis of were performed. When temperature and precipitation effects are not considered, is more sensitive to the expected number of infected Aedes spp. due to one infected livestock and more elastic to the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected Aedes spp. When climatic data are used, is found to be more sensitive and elastic to the expected number of infected eggs laid by Aedes spp. via transovarial transmission, followed by the expected number of infected livestock due to one infected Aedes spp. and the expected number of infected Aedes spp. due to one infected livestock for both regions Arusha and Dodoma. These results call for attention to parameters regarding incubation period, the adequate contact rate of Aedes spp. and livestock, the infective periods of livestock and Aedes spp., and the vertical transmission in Aedes species.